000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W north of 04N to Central America and the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 98W/99W from 03N to the Mexican coast, moving west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 118W from 04N northward to 17N, is moving west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10.5N84W to 08N98W to 10.5N111W to 06.5N119W. ITCZ extends from 12.5N134W to beyond 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N E of 91W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 15.5N between 92W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12.5N between 117W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene remains just west of the Baja waters tonight near 26.5N123W, and is disrupting the typical surface ridge extending into the area. As a result, winds across the Baja nearshore waters are moderate tonight, and 10 kt or less beyond 90 nm of the coasts. Seas are 4-6 ft across the waters of Baja Norte and 4-5 ft farther south. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW gap winds prevail N of Isla El Muerto, where seas have built to 4-5 ft. Moderate westerly winds are across the remainder of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, expect fresh near the coast at Cabo Corrientes. Seas there are 5-6 ft in S swell. Strong thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave along 98W/99W are moving W of 102W and beyond the offshore waters. However, strong thunderstorms continue near the coast of SE Mexico, and cover the entire Gulf of Tehuantepec area tonight. Coastal stations there have reported gusty SE winds in excess of 25 kt in recent hours. For the forecast, Pacific high pressure will shift well northwest of the area, while a weak trough resides across the Baja Norte waters through Thu. Moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh across the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas tonight through Sat night, then from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro thereafter as weak high pressure develops W of the area. Moderate W to SW gap winds across the N Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through Thu night. Fresh N winds may pulse to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night. Looking ahead, a strong tropical wave will approach the waters S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Mon, and is expected to increase the gap wind flow across Tehuantepec. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight as active convection moves through the area. Winds are moderate or gentle elsewhere N of 09N, except near showers and thunderstorms. Seas are 5-6 ft in S swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the offshore waters S of 07N, potentially resulting in locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms across the waters W of 80W will shift west of the area Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail N of 09N through Sat. Moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected S of 09N through Sat. A strong tropical wave is expected to enter the area late Sat through Sun producing increasing winds, seas and weather. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The nearly stationary 1014 mb remnant low of Eugene is centered near 26.5N123W with only moderate winds and seas 6 to 7 ft just NW of it. Outside of Eugene, strong high pressure centered north of the Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge southeastward to just west of California. The pressure gradient between 1014 mb low pressure near 17N132W and the ITCZ to it's SW, and this ridge is producing a tight pressure gradient across the waters north of 17N and west of 130W, and yielding fresh to strong NE winds across the majority of this area. Seas are 7-9 ft within the area of fresh to strong NE winds due to wind waves and S swell. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, the remnants of Eugene will gradually dissipate and drift N-NE during the next 24-48 hours. The broad zone of fresh to strong NE winds and higher seas will shift west of the area by this afternoon as the high center across the N Pacific shifts westward. The weak low currently near 17N132W should drift northwestward and dissipate in a couple of days. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the end of the week as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this week several hundred miles south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while it moves generally westward across the central portion of the basin. Active convection occurring across the tropics E of 106W tonight, and associated with a tropical wave, will shift westward into the open tropical waters during the next few days, and is expected to be the precursor to this potential system. $$ Stripling