000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has entered our waters from the Caribbean and is
along 80W north of 04N to Central America and the W Caribbean,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted north of 03N east of 86W.

A tropical wave is along 93W from 04N to Central America, moving
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N-12N between 89W-101W.

A tropical wave is along 113W from 05N northward to 19N, is 
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N-12N between 115W-123W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 13N110W to beyond
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted north of 03N east of 86W and from 05N-12N between 89W-101W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-12N between 
115W-123W. Scattered strong convection is noted within 90 NM SW 
semicircle of low pres near 16N131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene just west of the
Baja waters is disrupting the typical surface ridge in the area.
As a result, winds across the waters are moderate or weaker this
morning. Seas are 3-5 ft on the Gulf of California and 5-7 ft 
mainly in S swell elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, Pacific high pressure will shift well northwest of 
the area, while a weak trough develops across the Baja Norte 
waters through Wed. Moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh across
the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas this 
afternoon through Sat. Moderate W to SW gap winds across the N 
Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night
through Thu night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE-E gap winds are occurring this morning over the Gulf of
Papagayo region, with winds moderate or gentle elsewhere. Seas
are 5-7 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, the scattered strong thunderstorms associated 
with two tropical waves interacting with the monsoon trough will 
continue today and Wed across the waters east of 95W. Fresh NE-E 
winds across the Papagayo region will diminish tonight. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene is centered near 26N123W at 1200 
UTC, moving west-northwest at 10-15 kt. Central pressure is
around 1010 mb with max winds of 20 kt and seas to 9 ft.

Outside of Eugene, 1034 mb high pressure centered north of the 
Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge southeastward to just west of
California. The pressure gradient between lower pressure 
associated with the remnant low of Eugene, and the monsoon trough
west of 130W and this strong ridge is producing a tight pressure
gradient across the northwest half of the discussion area, and 
yielding fresh to strong NE winds west of a line from near 
30N123W to 17N140W. Seas are 8-11 ft within the areas of fresh 
to strong NE winds due to both wind waves and S swell. 
Additionally, there is a weak 1012 mb low centered near 16N131W 
with winds to fresh to strong breeze and seas to 9 ft within 60 
NM of the N semicircle. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker
and seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the remnants of Eugene will drift west and 
gradually dissipate during the next 24 hours. The broad zone of 
fresh to strong NE winds and higher seas will shift west of the 
area by mid-day Wed as the high center across the N Pacific 
shifts westward. The weak low currently near 16N131W should drift
northwestward and dissipate in a couple of days. Elsewhere, fairly
tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the 
end of the week as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this week
several hundred NM south or southwest of the SW coast of Mexico.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, 
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while it 
moves generally westward across the central portion of the basin.

$$
Landsea