000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080955 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W from 05N to Central America is moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 110W/111W from 05N northward to 19N, is moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 10.5N85W to 07N93W to 11N103W to 09.5N111W to low pressure near 15.5N130.5W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 07.5N E of 88W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N between 87W and 99W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 14N between 103W and 120W, from 11N to 15N between 121W and 127W. Scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm W semicircle of low pres near 15.5N130.5W, and within 60 nm N and 150 nm S of the trough W of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene is centered near 25.5N 121.5W at 0600 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt, and has moved W of the Baja offshore waters. Associated seas to 8 ft in southerly swell continue to impact the far western offshore waters W of Punta Eugenia and will shift NW and out of the area waters later this morning. Elsewhere, high pressure is weakening across the region, as NE Pacific high pressure is shifting NW and away from the area. A weak N to S trough is expected to develop tonight across the Baja Norte waters and will yield light to gentle winds across the Baja waters into the afternoon, before modecontinue to weaken overnight through Tue. The western low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough with will shift NW with fresh winds and seas to around 8 ft before opening up into a trough through mid- week. The ridging NW of Post- Tropical Eugene and the lows will weaken and shift NW allowing for the fresh to strong trades and resultant seas to diminish and subside through mid- week. rate NW winds become established across the nearshore waters S of Punta Eugenia throughout the week. Fresh SW to W gap winds are occurring across central and N portions of the Gulf of California, where seas have built to 4-6 ft. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Baja offshore waters in a mix of S and N swell, and 3-5 ft across the remaining Mexican waters. A small area of moderate to fresh gap winds are spilling into the central Gulf of Tehuantepec to produce seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, Pacific high pressure will continue to shift well NW of the area, while a weak trough resides across the Baja Norte waters through Wed. Moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh winds across the near-shore waters of from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas this afternoon through Fri, continue to weaken overnight through Tue. The western low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough with will shift NW with fresh winds and seas to around 8 ft before opening up into a trough through mid- week. The ridging NW of Post- Tropical Eugene and the lows will weaken and shift NW allowing for the fresh to strong trades and resultant seas to diminish and subside through mid- week. and along the coast near Cabo Corrientes through Wed morning. Moderate W to SW gap winds across the Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through Fri, building seas across N portions to 6-7 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are occurring across the Papagayo region, and extend downwind to 88W. Seas there are 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft scontinue to weaken overnight through Tue. The western low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough with will shift NW with fresh winds and seas to around 8 ft before opening up into a trough through mid- week. The ridging NW of Post- Tropical Eugene and the lows will weaken and shift NW allowing for the fresh to strong trades and resultant seas to diminish and subside through mid- week. eas in S swell are N of there. S of the Papagayo region, gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow prevails, where seas are 4-6 ft in S swell, except 6-7 ft S of 03N and across the waters surrounding the Galapagos Islands. Active and strong convection continues from offshore Colombia W-NW to beyond 90W, generating locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms associated with two tropical waves will continue today and tonight across the waters E of 90W and produce locally higher winds and seas. Fresh NE-E winds will pulse to strong in the Papagayo region through Tue night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. Southerly swell up to around 8 ft S of the Galapagos Islands will diminish by tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene is centered near 25.5N 121.5W at 0600 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 100 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas remain 8 to 10 ft within 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Outside of Eugene, 1032 mb high pressure centered N-NE of the Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge SE into the local NW waters. The pressure gradient between lower pressure associated with the remnant low of Eugene, and the monsoon trough W of 130W and this strong ridge is producing a tight pressure gradient across the NW half of the discussion area, and yielding fresh to strong NE winds W of a line from near 30N123W to 17N140W. Seas of 7-11 ft in fresh NE swell covers this general area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, along with 5-7 ft seas, except to 8 ft S of the Equator and E of 115W. For the forecast, the remnants of Eugene will drift W and gradually dissipate during the next 48 hours. The broad zone of fresh to strong NE winds and higher seas will shift W of the area by midday Wed as the high center across the N Pacific shifts W. The southerly swell to around 8 ft S of the Equator will subside later today. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the end of the week as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form several hundred nautical miles S or SW of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend while it moves generally westward. Active weather occurring across the offshore waters of Central America and associated with two tropical waves will shift westward of 90W over the next few days, generally S of 12W. $$ Stripling