000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072142 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene is centered near 25.1N 120.4W at 07/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No deep convection is noted with Post- Tropical Eugene. While the system is no longer tropical, some remnant seas of 12 ft or greater remain within 60 nm in the NE quadrant, with peak seas of around 14 ft. Remnant southerly swells may continue impacting portion of Baja California tonight and may cause large surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Winds are forecast to be 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft by Tue afternoon. The system should gradually spin down and become a trough of low pressure in about 2 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W/86W from 05N to across the Gulf of Papagayo and western Nicaragua, and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving W at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 106W/107W from 05N northward to near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 07N90W to low pressure near 15.6N118W to low pressure near 13N129.5W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 15N between 77W and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 103W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 118W and 130W, and from 06N to 15N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene. Outside of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene, weak ridging extends from NW to SE across the offshore waters of Mexico. Fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass, along with 4-6 ft seas. A locally tight pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds in the northern Gulf along with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-7 ft seas in mainly long period southerly swell. For the forecast, Eugene will become a remnant low and move to 25.7N 121.9W Tue morning, 26.3N 122.7W Tue afternoon, 27.0N 122.7W Wed morning, 27.8N 121.7W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Large seas in southerly swell from Eugene will remain possible across portions of the Baja California waters and coast and the entrance to the Gulf of California through tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Tue. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California, mainly at night, through Thu night. Moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse near- shore Baja California Sur Tue through early Fri, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Cabo Corriente tonight through early Wed. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region along with 5-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas in S swell are N of there, with moderate southerly winds south of the Papagayo region. Seas of 5-8 ft in S-SW swell prevail S of the Papagayo region, highest S of the Galapagos Islands, and 3-6 ft offshore Colombia. Very active convection extends from offshore Colombia W-NW with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, deep convection from offshore Colombia W-NW will linger through at least tonight with locally higher winds and seas. Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Tue night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. Southerly swell up to around 8 ft S of the Galapagos Islands will linger through mid-week. Slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene. Outside of Eugene, high pressure ridging extends across the waters N of the monsoon trough. A 1012 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 13N129.5W. Fresh to strong winds are around the low per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with seas of 6-8 ft. Another 1012 mb low was noted near 16N118.5W in the ASCAT data with moderate winds near it. A tight pressure gradient exists between the ridging, Eugene and the low resulting in fresh to strong NE winds W of a line from near 30N123W to 15N140W. Seas of 7-11 ft in fresh NE swell covers this same general area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, along with 5-7 ft seas, except to 8 ft S of the Equator and E of 115W. For the forecast, Eugene will become a remnant low and move to 25.7N 121.9W Tue morning, 26.3N 122.7W Tue afternoon, 27.0N 122.7W Wed morning, 27.8N 121.7W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. The western low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough with will shift NW with fresh winds and seas to around 8 ft before opening up into a trough through mid-week. The ridging NW of Post-Tropical Eugene and the low will weaken and shift NW allowing for the fresh to strong trades and resultant seas to diminish and subside through mid-week. The southerly swell to around 8 ft S of the Equator will subside by early Tue. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the end of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form several hundred nautical miles S or SW of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend while it moves generally westward. $$ Lewitsky