000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070416 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 23.3N 115.0W at 0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased significantly in the past 6 hours, with scattered moderate convection now confined to within 90 nm across the W semicircle. Seas to 12 ft and greater extend within 120 nm NE...90 nm SE...30 nm SW...and 45 nm NW quadrants with seas to 24 ft. A continued W-NW motion and a steady weakening trend is expected during the next 36 hours as Eugene begins to move across cooler waters and into a drier more stable environment. Eugene will exit the offshore waters of Baja Sur near 24.3N 117.5W Mon morning, and is expected to become a 25 kt post-tropical cyclone Tue morning near 26.1N 121.7W. S swell generated by Eugene will continue to impact the waters and coasts of Baja California Sur and the entrance to the Gulf of California through about midday Mon before subsiding. These swells are likely to cause large surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the region along 80W from 05N into the Caribbean, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted S of 08.5N E of 82W. A tropical wave is along 103W from 13N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 99W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N72W to 09.5N80W to 08N94W to 11.5N107W, then resumes near 16.5N116W to 09.5N137W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02.5N to 13N between 82W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12.5N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Eugene. Outside of T.S. Eugene, 1031 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 36N139W, and shifting toward the NW. The associated pressure gradient offshore of Baja California is leading to gentle to moderate NW winds over the Baja California Norte waters northward of Punta Abreojos, with seas 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle N to NE winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters W of 110W, with seas ranging from 5-8 ft. Winds and seas associated with Eugene dominate the offshore waters of Baja Sur, while southerly swell continues to move into the entrance to the Gulf of California, producing seas 6 to 8 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters. Southerly winds inside the entire Gulf of California have become moderate to fresh tonight, with seas building to 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, Eugene will move W-NW and gradually weaken through 36 hours, before weakening to a remnant low Tue morning and dissipating Wed evening. Elsewhere, gentle winds off Baja California Norte will continue through midday Tue as high pressure moves NW and weakens across the region. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will return to the Baja nearshore waters Tue afternoon through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 88W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 07N with seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell, except for moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate S to SW winds are noted S of 07N, with moderate S swell producing seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, moderate NE to E gap winds offshore of the Papagayo region will pulse each night fresh to locally strong through early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Moderate southerly winds and swell will continue across the Galapagos Islands and waters of Ecuador through Mon before diminishing. Moderate southerly winds will then return again Wed through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Hurricane Dora continues to move W and further away from the local area tonight. However, fresh to strong NE winds and seas in excess of 12 ft are still occurring from 14N-24N and W of 135W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 10 ft N of 10N and W of 120W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, high pressure near 36N139W will shift NW over the next few days. The monsoon trough has lifted northward to 16N116W this evening. The pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is expected to maintain a broad band of fresh to strong N to NE winds across the waters N of 15N and W of 125W through Mon and then gradually shift NW with the migrating high. Tropical Storm Eugene will cross 120W Mon morning and weaken quickly to a post-tropical low before dissipating. A weak pressure pattern is expected across the regional waters W of 120W Wed through Fri. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 00N and west of 90W tonight with combined seas 8 to 9 ft, then will subside by late Mon. $$ Stripling