000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060528 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 13.2N 136.5W at 03300 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Dora has intensified again this afternoon and evening, with a well defined eye surrounded by numerous strong convection within 90 nm of center. Peak seas are currently estimated around 32 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 120 nm in the NE, and 45 nm SW of center. Peak seas will continue to be 20 ft or greater through the weekend. Dora remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. Dora is then expected to weaken beginning Sunday and continuing through Monday. Tropical Storm Eugene is near 20.0N 108.8W at 0300 UTC, moving northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Numerous strong convection is noted from 19N to 20.5N between 107.5W and 109W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 17N to 20.5N between 106.5W and 111.5W. Seas to 12 ft and greater extend within 90 nm across the NE quadrant and 45 nm across the SW quadrant with maximum seas to 13 ft. Modest strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours as Eugene moves NW across the offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes and Baja California Sur. Afterward, weakening is expected and Eugene should quickly become a remnant low in 3 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora and Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W from 04N to SW Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Mexican coastal waters N of 15.5N between 98W and 101.5W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N73.5W to 07.5N78W to 07.5N95W to 11N103W, then resumes near 16N112W to 10N132W, then resumes again from 10.5N137W to beyond 09N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 10N between 80W and 102W, from 03N to 11.5N between 102W and 112W, from 08N to 14.5N between 107W and 129W, and from 06N to 09N W of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Eugene. 1029 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 34N134W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and lower pressure over the northern Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters northward of Punta Abreojos, with seas 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to SW winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters W of 110W, with seas ranging from 4-7 ft. Outside of the conditions associated with T.S. Eugene offshore of Cabo Corrientes, light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas. Southerly winds inside the south and central Gulf of California have become moderate this evening, with seas building to 3 to 4 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Eugene will continue to move NW and strengthen modestly over the next 24 hours, then begin to slowly weaken. Eugene is expected to reach near 21.4N 110.8W Sun morning, near 22.8N 113.7W Sun evening, reach near 25.2N 119.5W Mon evening as a minimal tropical storm, then move more W-NW across the open Pacific waters and weaken to a remnant low through Tue evening. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds off Baja California Norte will gradually diminish to gentle through Sun, as high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. Moderate southerly swell, and freshening southerly winds will spread across the Gulf of California tonight through Sun as Eugene approaches Cabo San Lucas and then shifts W of Baja Sur. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 92W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 04N with seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except for moderate N to NE winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 04N, with moderate winds S of 02N. Seas there range 6 to 7 ft in S swell. For the forecast, easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse each night fresh to strong through early Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Moderate southerly winds and moderate southerly swell will spread across the Galapagos Islands and waters of Ecuador through Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 9 ft N of 10N and W of 115W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue moving westward through Sun, and cross 140W into the central Pacific Sun afternoon. Some minor fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. Dora is then expected to weaken beginning Sunday and continuing through Monday. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W on Sun with combined seas to 8 ft, then will subside on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Stripling