000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 13.8N 128.5W at 04/2100 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 12N to 17N between 127W and 132W. Some additional weakening is forecast through Saturday, with little change in strength expected on Sunday and Monday. Peak seas are currently estimated around 25 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 75 nm in the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SW quadrant, and 90 nm across the NW quadrant. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become better organized over the past several hours. A tropical wave is associated with this area of convection, with axis extending along 104W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. The system has a high chance for tropical development withing the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at the web- site www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W from 04N to SW Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted over the adjacent Pacific waters at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 15N108W to 11N124W, then resumes from 09N132W to 10N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07W and E of 91W, and from 03N to 14N between 110W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1025 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 34N131W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and low pressure over the northern Gulf of California continues to support fresh N to NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters southward to Punta Abreojos, with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, with seas ranging from 4-6 ft. Strong thunderstorms continue to shift westward away from land across the waters between Manzanillo and central portions of Sinaloa, where strong gusty winds to 30 kt are expected. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted south of the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore waters with seas 5-8 ft. Pulses of fresh N winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas will continue off Baja California Norte through Sun, before high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. Looking ahead, the area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is expected to become better organized during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected to continue along the southern Mexico and Baja California offshore waters through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 04N with seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except for moderate N winds across the western Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 04N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas there range 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate with fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse each night to fresh to strong through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Looking ahead, expect moderate southerly winds with increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 5 to 8 ft from 10N to 14N and W of 138W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move to 13.6N 130.8W Sat morning, 13.5N 134.0W Sat afternoon, 13.3N 137.5W Sun morning, 13.1N 141.0W Sun afternoon, 12.9N 144.6W Mon morning, and 12.8N 148.4W Mon afternoon. Dora will change little in intensity as it moves to 12.5N 156.5W by Tue afternoon. Moderate to large E to SE swell will continue within 120-180 nm NE through NW of Dora through the weekend and early next week. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through today with combined seas 8 to 9 ft, then will subside by Sat. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ ERA