000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041609 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 14.0N 126.9W at 04/1500 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 12N to 17N between 125W and 130W. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next two days or so. Peak seas are currently estimated around 25 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 75 nm in the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SW quadrant, and 90 nm across the NW quadrant. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. A tropical wave is associated with this area of convection, with axis extending along 103W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two as it moves west- northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. The system has a high chance for tropical development withing the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at the web- site www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W from 04N to Guatemala, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted over the adjacent Pacific waters at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 13N109W to 10N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 15W E of 90W and between 110W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1024 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 34N132W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and low pressure over the northern Gulf of California continues to produce fresh to strong N to NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters southward to Punta Abreojos, where seas are 6-9 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, where seas area 4-6 ft. Strong thunderstorms continue to shift westward away from land across the waters between Manzanillo and central portions of Sinaloa, where strong gusty winds to 30 kt have likely occurred. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted south of the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore waters with seas 5-7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas will continue off Baja California Norte through Sun, before high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to become better organized during the next day or so few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as it moves west- northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected to develop along the southern Mexico and Baja California offshore waters this afternoon through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 04N with seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except for moderate N winds across the western Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 04N, with locally moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas there range 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along the Colombia coast. For the forecast, moderate with fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse each night to fresh to strong through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Looking ahead, expect moderate southerly winds with increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Fresh winds are noted along the tropical wave and low pressure near 11N139W. Seas range 5 to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move to 13.9N 129.2W this evening, 13.7N 132.4W Sat morning, 13.5N 135.7W Sat evening, 13.2N 139.1W Sun morning, 13.0N 142.6W Sun evening, and 12.9N 146.3W Mon morning. Dora will change little in intensity as it moves to 13.0N 154.5W by early Tue. Moderate to large E to SE swell will continue within 120-180 nm NE through NW of Dora through the weekend and early next week. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through today with combined seas 8 to 9 ft, then will subside by Sat. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ ERA