000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030347 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Dora is centered near 15.2N 116.9W at 03/0300 UTC and moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 70 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 26 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 90 nm in the NE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant, 75 nm in the NW quadrant and 60 nm in the SW quadrant. Dora will continue moving westward to west- southwestward over the next several days. Dora is forecast to intensify a little more overnight, then a gradual weakening trend is expected afterward. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 81W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across Panama into the east Pacific. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Panama. Another tropical wave is near 95W from the Bay of Campeche southward through southern Mexico into the east Pacific. It is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the coast of Guerrero and Oaxaca States of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is found farther south from 06N to 13N between 94W and 100W. A third tropical wave is near 135W from 19N southward through a 1011 mb low at 11N135W, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 13N between 134W and 137W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from near the border of Costa Rica and Panama through 10N95W to 13N111W. Scattered moderate convection is present up to 150 nm north and 300 nm south of the trough west of 100W. An ITCZ extends westward from 10N119W to 08N133W, and resumes from 07N137W to beyond 140W at 06N. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 180 nm south of both ITCZ segments. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Dora. Rough seas associated with Dora are impacting the waters south of Socorro and Clarion Islands. Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are also noted south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca offshore waters with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are noted in the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Hurricane Dora depicted in the Special Features section above, expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte late Thu into Sat. Looking ahead, environmental conditions appear favorable for development of a low pressure off the southern Mexico coast. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as this system moves west-northwestward or northwestward, moving parallel to but not far off the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of developing in 48 hours and high chance of developing in 7 days. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas between Cabo Corrientes and Baja California Sur on Fri and will continue through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo with 4 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 07N with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted S of 07N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Costa Rica coast. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. Moderate to fresh gap winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. Looking ahead, expect increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands late Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Locally fresh winds are noted along the tropical wave near 134W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6-8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move to 15.2N 117.8W Thu morning, 14.9N 120.7W Thu afternoon, 14.5N 123.9W Fri morning, 14.1N 127.1W Fri afternoon, 13.7N 130.2W Sat morning, and 13.3N 133.3W Sat afternoon. Dora will change little in intensity as it moves near 12.6N 139.8W by Sun afternoon. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through Thu night with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Forecaster Chan