645 AXPZ20 KNHC 022149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 15.4N 115.6W at 02/2100 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 26 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant, 75 nm in the NW quadrant and 45 nm in the SW quadrant. Dora will continue moving westward to west-southwestward over the next several days. Dora is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Friday. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through the rest of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific off the coasts of Panama and Colombia, passing through 80W north of 05N at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. A tropical wave extends along 95W north of 08N through southern Mexico and is drifting west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 92W and 96W. A tropical wave extends along 134W from 08N to 20N and is moving west around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted near 12N. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm north of the center of the low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 08N84W to 11N110W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to beyond 06N140W. In addition the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 88W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 13N between 123W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Dora. Rough seas associated with Dora are impacting the waters south of Socorro and Clarion Islands. Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are also noted south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca offshore waters with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are noted in the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Hurricane Dora depicted in the Special Features section above, expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte late Thu into Sat. Looking ahead, environmental conditions appear favorable for development of a low pressure off the southern Mexico coast. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as this system moves west-northwestward or northwestward, moving parallel to but not far off the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of developing in 48 hours and high chance of developing in 7 days. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas between Cabo Corrientes and Baja California Sur on Fri and will continue through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo with 4 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 07N with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted S of 07N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Costa Rica coast. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. Moderate to fresh gap winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. Looking ahead, expect increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands late Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Locally fresh winds are noted along the tropical wave near 134W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6-8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move to 15.2N 117.8W Thu morning, 14.9N 120.7W Thu afternoon, 14.5N 123.9W Fri morning, 14.1N 127.1W Fri afternoon, 13.7N 130.2W Sat morning, and 13.3N 133.3W Sat afternoon. Dora will change little in intensity as it moves near 12.6N 139.8W by Sun afternoon. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through Thu night with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ AReinhart