000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012157 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 16.1N 110.1W at 01/2100 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Maximum seas are around 13 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Dora will continue moving westward with a gradual turn towards the west- southwest over the next few days. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24-36 hours and Dora could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Seas are expected to build over 20 ft tonight and will continue to be over 20 ft through the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 90W north of 07N through Guatemala and is drifting west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 88W and 91W. A tropical wave extends along 129W from 08N to 21N and is moving west around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough near 12N. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 08N109W to 07N132W. The ITCZ extends from 07N132W to beyond 07N140W. In addition the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 84W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 117W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Dora as it is impacting the outer offshore waters of Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with Tropical Storm Dora. Seas are around 5 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. Scattered thunderstorms are noted within the Michoacan, Guerrero and Oaxaca offshore waters. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Dora depicted in the Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase by Wed as a weak surface trough approaches the area. Fresh to strong N to NW winds can be expected through the rest of the week in this area with seas around 8 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo with 4 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N or 03N with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted S of 03N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Strong thunderstorms are impacting the offshore waters Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua due to the tropical wave along 90W. For the forecast, fresh E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on newly-formed Tropical Storm Dora. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough W of 120W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 100W and 140W persists around 5-7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Dora is near 16.1N 110.1W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Dora will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.1N 112.3W Wed morning, move to 15.9N 115.1W Wed afternoon, 15.4N 117.9W Thu morning, 15.0N 121.0W Thu afternoon, 14.5N 124.1W Fri morning, and 13.9N 127.1W Fri afternoon. Dora will change little in intensity as it moves near 13.2N 133.5W by Sat afternoon. Farther south, southerly swell will move into the waters south of 05N and west of 115W through Thu, with combined seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ AReinhart