048 AXPZ20 KNHC 312104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly Formed Tropical Depression Five-E is centered near 14.8N 104.4W at 31/2100 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Maximum seas are around 8 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 101W and 107W. Strengthening is anticipated and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Tuesday. The depression is forecast to continue moving W, farther away from the Mexican coast. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 86W north of 03N through Nicaragua, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 04N between 80W and 86W. A nearly stationary tropical wave extends along 124W from 03N to 19N. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough near 11N. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 06N to 14N between 121W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N107W to the 1010 mb low near 11N124W to beyond 11N140W. In addition the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 89W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 101W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with newly formed Tropical Depression Five-E, described in the Special Features section above. These winds should diminish tonight as the disturbance moves farther west of the area. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Tropical Depression Five-E, depicted in the Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, in association with a weak surface trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region into Tue, with moderate to fresh W winds prevailing thereafter. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on newly-formed Tropical Depression Five-E. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and 140W persists around 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the area. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, Tropical Depression Five-E is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm early this week, and may move S and SW of the Revillagigedo Islands Wed. $$ KONARIK