000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311540
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96): Low pressure near 15N103W, a
few hundred miles S of the southern coast of Mexico, is producing
scattered moderate convection from 14N to 18N between 101W and
107W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
next day or two while the system moves generally W at 10 to 15
kt, moving further away from the Mexico coast. Regardless of
development, increasing winds and seas are forecast with EP96,
and a gale warning has been issued for Tue night and Wed for
portions of waters S of the Revillagigedo Islands. There's 
still a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. 
For more information, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
tropical wave along 103W that is inducing surface low pressure.

A tropical wave extends along 83W north of 03N through Costa Rica,
moving west at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted N of 04N and E of 83W. 

A nearly stationary tropical wave extends along 123W from 02N to
18N. A 1010 low pressure is noted where this wave is interacting
with the monsoon trough near 11N. Scattered moderate convection
has developed from 07N to 13N between 121W and 124W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N109W to the 1009 mb
low near 11N123W to beyond 11N140W. In addition the convection 
described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave 
sections, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 13N between 89W and 101W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 101W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to
the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW
Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with EP96, 
described in the Special Features section above. These winds 
should diminish tonight as the disturbance moves farther west of
the area. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with 
moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, aside from the impacts of EP96, depicted in the
Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja 
California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, associated with
a weak surface trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, 
with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of 
Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S 
swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh E gap winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region into tonight, with moderate to fresh W winds 
during each day. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a low
pressure near 12N122W and the gale warning in association with
it. 

Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and
140W persists around 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, as described in the Special
Features section, a tropical cyclone is likely to develop S and
SW of Mexico early this week, and may move S and SW of the 
Revillagigedo Islands Wed.

$$
KONARIK