000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300240
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96): 1009 mb low pressure is
analysed south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 13.6N 93.6W, 
along a tropical wave extending southward to 04N. The low and 
tropical wave complex is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
showers and a few thunderstorms are noted over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec near the coast, and ahead of the low from 12N to 15N 
between 96W and 98W. Environmental conditions are favorable for 
gradual development, and there is a medium chance a tropical 
depression will likely form through early next week while the 
system moves west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts 
of southern and southwestern Mexico. For more information, please
refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
tropical wave along 93W.

A tropical wave extends along 119W from 02N to 18N. The tropical
wave interacting with an upper trough in the area, and may be
moving into the drier, subsident side of the upper trough. No
significant convection is noted near this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N110W to 10N120W to
10N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 04N to 07N between 80W and 92W, and from 06N to 09N
between 102W and 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered along the northern coast of the Gulf 
of Mexico. The gradient between this high pressure and lower 
pressure over tropical eastern Pacific is supporting strong northerly
gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, occasionally pulsing to near-
gale force. Maximum combined seas are estimated to be around 8 
ft. Light to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the area, 
with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, in addition to the developing low pressure
mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong northerly gap 
winds are expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into 
Sun. Winds and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase 
beginning late Wed, associated with a weak surface trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of
Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S 
swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will 
pulse across the Papagayo region tonight and tomorrow night, with
moderate to fresh W winds during each day. Gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and
140W persists around 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, as described in the Special
Features section, a tropical cyclone may develop south of Mexico
early in the week, possibly moving west of the Revillagigedo 
Islands by Thu.

$$
Christensen