350 
AXPZ20 KNHC 292047
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96): A tropical wave is along 92W,
from the coast of Guatemala southward, moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of 11N
between 92W and 98W. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form 
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 
to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and 
southwestern Mexico. This tropical wave has a MEDIUM (40%) chance
of developing into a tropical cyclone through 48 hours. For more
information, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
tropical wave along 92W.

A tropical wave extends along 119W from 02N to 18N. The tropical
wave is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate convection, 
likely enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is from 08N to 12N between
117W and 124W.

A tropical wave extends along 139W from 03N to 13N, moving west 
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
from 08N to 12N west of 136W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N110W to 1012 mb low
pressure centered at 11N119W to 07N140W. In addition to the 
convection described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered 
moderate convection is from 04N to 07N east of 85W, and in the 
Gulf of Panama.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered along the northern coast of the Gulf 
of Mexico. The gradient between this high pressure and lower 
pressure over tropical eastern Pacific is supporting strong northerly
gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, occasionally pulsing to near-
gale force. Satellite altimeter data from this morning confirmed
8-9 ft seas in this region. Light to moderate winds dominate the
remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected to
persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sun. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of 
southern Mexico later this weekend. Thereafter, gradual 
development of this system is forecast and a tropical depression 
will likely form early next week while it moves west-northwestward 
toward the Revillagigedo Islands at 10 to 15 kt, roughly 
parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. Winds
and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase beginning
Wed, associated with a weak surface trough.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of
Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S 
swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will 
pulse across the Papagayo region tonight and tomorrow night, with
moderate to fresh W winds during each day. Gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and
140W has diminished to 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, there is a high chance a 
tropical cyclone will develop south of Mexico early in the week, 
possibly moving west of the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu.

$$
Mahoney/SBK