000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290259
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from the far SW Caribbean Sea, southward
along 85W to around 06N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant
convection is note in the immediate vicinity of the tropical
wave, although numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
starting along the coast from northwest Nicaragua to southwest
Guatemala.

A tropical wave extends along 119W from 01N to 17N moving west 
at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed where
the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough near 11N117W.

A tropical wave extends along 135W from 03N to 15N, moving west 
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is note from 07N to
08N between 136W and 137W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N100W to 11N117W to
06N140W. The ITCZ continues west of 140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 07N to 08N between 96W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1019 mb high pressure is centered along the northern coast of the 
Gulf of Mexico. The gradient between this high pressure and lower
pressure over tropical eastern Pacific is supporting pulses of 
strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
occasionally reaching near- gale force mainly overnight and 
during the early morning hours. Light to moderate winds dominate
the remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected to
persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. Looking ahead, 
an area of low pressure is likely to form off the coast of 
southern Mexico by late Sun. Thereafter, there is a medium chance
this system will gradually development into a tropical 
depression while it moves west- northwestward generally toward 
the Revillagigedo Islands through the early to middle part of the
week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo,
with 4 to 6 ft seas downstream. Gentle breezes persist 
elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas, except 5 to 6 ft over Ecuadorian 
waters in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will 
pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun mainly at night and 
in the early mornings. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Southerly swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting 
combined seas to 7 ft south of 05N between 100W and 125W. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, there is a high chance a
tropical cyclone will develop south of Mexico early in the week,
possibly moving west of the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu.

$$
Christensen