000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272057
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The tropical wave extends along 113W from 01N to 15N moving west
at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
06N to 17N between 111W and 115W. 

A tropical wave extends along 125W from 10N to 22N, moving west
at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this
wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N100W to 10N110W to
08N131W. The ITCZ continues from 08N131W to 06N135W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between
88W and 95W, from 05N to 11N between 107W and 111W, from 05N to
08N between 115W and 125W, and from 04N to 09N between 127W and
131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to funnel into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with corresponding seas of 5-7 ft. The gradient
between a high pressure ridge over NW Mexico and a surface trough
near the Baja Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE-S 
winds in the Gulf of California. Light to moderate winds dominate
the remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the 
weekend. The gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico 
and a trough near the Baja Peninsula will support fresh to 
occassionally strong SE winds in the Gulf of California nightly 
through Mon morning. An area of low pressure could form off the 
coast of southern Mexico over the weekend to early next week. 
Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible 
and a tropical depression could form while it moves generally 
west- northwestward. The current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 
seven days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed throughout the
central American offshore zones. A recent scatterometer pass
found fresh to strong NE to E winds persist in the Papagayo
region, where seas are 4-6 ft. 5-7 ft southerly swell continues
south of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E gap winds in the Papagayo 
region will diminish tonight. Winds will continue to pulse to 
moderate to fresh in the area, mainly at night. Gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

S swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting combined seas
to 8 ft south of 05N between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the 
area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate seas will prevail, 
maintaining around 8 ft S of 05N and W of 100W, gradually 
subsiding through the weekend.

$$
Flynn