000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261505
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends along 106W from 01N to 14N, moving west 
at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
from 03N to 09N between 97W and 105W.

A tropical wave extends along 118W from 11N to 22N, moving west 
at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near
this tropical wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N129W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N129W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 09N between 78W and 84W. 
Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed 
from 04N to 11N between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to funnel into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with seas of 6-8 ft. A surface trough along the Baja
Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds in the central
and northern Gulf. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds
prevail elsewhere outside of thunderstorms. Long period slight to
moderate S-SW swell dominates the majority of the area, with
mixed NW swell offshore Baja California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the 
weekend. A building gradient between high pressure over northern 
Mexico and a trough near the Baja Peninsula, along with nocturnal
convection may generate fresh to occasionally strong SE winds in
the Gulf of California nightly through Sun morning. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Seas may
build slightly offshore Baja California Norte this weekend in 
new NW swell. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing south of Costa Rica and
Panama. Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist in the Papagayo
region, where seas are 5-7 ft. 5-7 ft southerly swell continues 
south of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E gap winds will continue today
in the Papagayo region before decreasing to moderate by Thu. 
Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will 
persist elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near strong 
thunderstorms S of Costa Rica/Panama and W of Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The axis of the robust tropical wave has crossed 140W this 
morning, but the conditions are lingering in the discussion area.
Specifically, fresh NE to E winds are noted from 10N to 15N, west
of 133W. These winds are maintaining 7-8 ft seas in the same
area. S swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting combined
seas to 8 ft south of the equator between 100W and 120W.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
prevail across the area.

For the forecast, conditions associated with the robust tropical
wave will diminish east of 140W by tonight. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds are forecast through the next several 
days. Moderate seas will prevail, maintaining around 8 ft S of 
the Equator and W of 95W through the remainder of the week.

$$
Flynn