000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260800
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends along 105W from 01N to 15N, moving west 
at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
from 05N to 12N between 102W and 109W.

A tropical wave extends along 117W from 05N to 22N, moving west 
at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed 
near this tropical wave.

A tropical wave extends along 139W/140W from 01N to 16N, moving 
west at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 139W and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N85W to 06N95W to
09N105W to 08N131W. The ITCZ extends from 08N131W to 08N139W.
In addition to the convection described in the tropical wave 
section, scattered moderate convection covers a large area from
01N to 09N between 77W and 81W, from 01N to 09N between 86W and
102W, and from 04N to 11N between 119W and 134W. Similar
convection is from 14N to 17N between 98W and 101W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to funnel into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with seas of 6-9 ft. A surface trough along the Baja
Peninsula along with deep convection along the coast of the
central and southern Gulf of California is supporting moderate to
fresh SE winds in the central and southern Gulf. Mainly gentle 
to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere outside of 
thunderstorms. Long period slight to moderate S-SW swell 
dominates the majority of the area, with mixed NW swell
offshore Baja California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the weekend. 
A building gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico 
and a trough near the Baja Peninsula, along with nocturnal
convection may generate fresh to occasionally strong SE winds in
the Gulf of California nightly through Sun morning. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Seas may
build slightly offshore Baja California Norte this weekend in 
new NW swell. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing offshore Colombia and
Panama. A ASCAT scatterometer pass reported fresh to strong NE-E 
winds offshore Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Papagayo, where
seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere,
except locally fresh NW-N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Outside 
of the Papagayo region, seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except 5-7 ft 
S-SW swell south of 02N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E gap winds will pulse nightly
in the Papagayo region through Thu morning before decreasing to 
moderate to locally fresh for the remainder of the forecast
period. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere, except for locally gusty 
winds near strong thunderstorms S of Costa Rica/Panama and W of 
Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The main feature outside of the offshore waters remains the
robust tropical wave near 139W/140W, though associated 
convection and conditions are advancing W of 140W. Fresh winds
and seas to around 8 ft are from 10N-14N between 135W-140W. 
Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging dominates the basin N of 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ. S swell from the southern hemisphere
is supporting combined seas to 8 ft south of the equator between
100W and 120W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, the robust tropical wave will shift completely 
W of 140W later morning with associated conditions in its wake
diminishing by tonight. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate 
winds are forecast through the next several days. Moderate seas 
will prevail, maintaining around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 
95W through the remainder of the week.

$$
Lewitsky