000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222142
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from the western 
Caribbean Sea southward to across Costa Rica, N of 05N, moving 
west around 10 to 15 kt. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms 
are off western Panama.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, N of 05N into southern 
Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are near the axis at 06N, but otherwise no
significant convection is evident.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W, N of 05N, moving west 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are
evident from 05N to 06N between 110W and 112W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 07N95W to 07N105W. 
Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N105W to 08N112W, from 
08N113W to 08N120W to 11N125W, and from 14N132W to beyond 
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 09N
between 92W and 96W, from 06N to 08N between 101W and 104W, and
from 08N to 10N between 115W and 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gap winds have diminished for now across the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
where residual 4 to 6 ft seas likely linger from earlier strong
winds this morning. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere
across Mexican offshore waters, with 3 to 5 ft seas over open
waters, and 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. Afternoon
sea breezes are igniting clusters of showers and thunderstorms
over the western slops of inland terrain, but keeping the
offshore waters free of any significant convection. 

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh gap winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight hours through Mon night.
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere. Possible locally gusty winds across the northern Gulf 
of California tonight near scattered showers and thunderstorms.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A large line of showers and thunderstorms is off the west coast
of Azuero peninsula of western Panama, extending south of
peninsula to 05N, moving to the southwest at 15 to 20 kt. This
may be associated with the tropical wave that is moving across
western Panama into Costa Rica. No significant convection is
active elsewhere over the Pacific offshore waters of Central 
America and northwestern South America. However, sea breeze
related showers and thunderstorms are active over much of the
inland terrain from Colombia to Guatemala. Moderate NE to E gap
winds are likely over the Gulf of Papagayo, diminished from
stronger gap winds earlier this morning. Elsewhere outside of 
the thunderstorm line off western Panama, mainly light to gentle 
breezes and moderate seas are evident. Combined seas are 3 to 5 
ft except for possible 6 ft near the Galapagos Islands, 
including a component of southerly swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Papagayo each night into the middle part of the week,
with moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will persist elsewhere, except for locally 
gusty winds near clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 
Colombia to Costa Rica.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of what was T.D. Four-E is completely exposed
this afternoon near 16.5N130W with an estimated pressure of 1010
mb. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may still be active 
with in 60 nm in the northern quadrant of the low, as noted in a 
scatterometer satellite pass and concurrent altimeter satellite 
from around 14 UTC. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Four-E will gradually
dissipate over the over the next 24 to 36 hours. Associated
strong winds and rough seas will diminish accordingly. Elsewhere,
moderate to occasionally fresh winds can be expected N of the 
convergence zone and W of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere through the early part of the week. Moderate seas will
prevail, building to around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 95W 
by Tue.

$$
Christensen