000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221554
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W from the western 
Caribbean Sea southward to across western Panama, N of 05N, 
moving west around 10 to 15 kt. A clusters of showers and
thunderstorms is near the southern end of the tropical wave near
03N82W

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, N of 05N to across S 
Mexico, just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, moving west 
around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W, N of 05N, moving west 
around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N86W to 07N95W to 07N105W. 
Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N105W to 07N110W, from 07N115W
to 11.5N125W, and from 12N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident within 90 nm of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between 85W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 4-6 ft were over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec earlier this morning, but are likely diminishing
currently. Earlier convection over the northern Gulf of
California has diminished. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail under a weak NW to SE ridge across the waters. Seas are 
mainly 4-5 ft elsewhere, except to 6 ft W-NW of Punta Eugenia. 
Primary wave direction is S, except NW offshore Baja California.

For the forecast, Fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are diminishing, but moderate to fresh winds will 
prevail through Mon, possibly becoming pulsing again to strong at
night beginning Mon night. Moderate winds will prevail in the 
Gulf of California through next week, with periods of fresh to 
strong southerly winds, especially if convection develops in the 
vicinity. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 
Slight to moderate seas will prevail through the next several 
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of thunderstorms persist from Costa Rica to Panama to 
the west coast of Colombia. Strong winds and locally rough seas
are possible near these storms. Fresh to strong NE to E winds 
and seas of 4-6 ft that were noted over and downwind of the Gulf 
of Papagayo region are diminishing as well. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle N of the
Papagayo region, along with seas of 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a surge of fresh to strong winds associated 
with deep convection may impact the waters offshore Colombia to 
Azuero Peninsula and southern Costa Rica this afternoon and
tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region 
will pulse each night/early morning through the forecast period.
NW to N winds may pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of
Panama at night beginning early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail along with slight to moderate seas. 
Seas may build to around 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands Tue 
night through Wed night in SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Convection near what was T.D. Four-E has diminished considerably.
The 1008 mb remnant low is center near 17.0N 129.4W at
22/1500 UTC moving W at 10 kt. However, strong winds and
rough seas persist near the remnant low. Elsewhere, surface 
ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate 
to fresh trades are noted N of 10N and W of 130W, where seas are 
5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the 
open waters, including S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along 
with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Four-E will gradually
dissipate over the over the next 24 to 36 hours. Associated
strong winds and rough seas will diminish accordingly. Elsewhere,
moderate to occasionally fresh winds can be expected N of the 
convergence zone and W of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. 
Moderate seas will prevail, building to around 8 ft S of the 
Equator and W of 95W early next week.

$$
Christensen