000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220851
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 16.6N 128.2W at
22/0900 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 11 ft may be in the northern semicircle.
The depression is sheared with only isolated to widely scattered
moderate convection occurring between 90 nm and 210 nm in the NE
quadrant. The depression is forecast to become post-tropical by
this afternoon, then dissipate Mon morning. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W from the western 
Caribbean Sea southward to across Panama and the Azuero Peninsula,
N of 05N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. A large area of 
convection is near the southern portion of the tropical wave and 
is described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W/98W, N of 05N to across 
S Mexico, just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, moving west 
around 15 kt. Nearby conveciton is described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W, N of 05N, moving west 
around 10 kt. Nearby conveciton is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N86W to 07N102W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N102W to 07N109W, then resumes W of a tropical
wave from 07N111W to 10N120W, then resumes S-SW of Tropical 
Depression Four-E from 11N129W to 08N140W. Aside from convection
noted above, numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
occurring from 01S to 11N between 77W and 88W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 08N between
91W and 101W, from 02N to 10N between 110W and 121W, and from 05N
to 07N between 136W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 4-6 ft are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong SE-S winds are noted in the northern
Gulf of California due to an area of deep convection that moved
from NW Mexico to near the Gulf earlier. Locally higher seas are
possible there as well, with seas of 1-3 ft across the remainder
of the Gulf of California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail under a weak NW to SE ridge across the waters. Seas are
mainly 4-5 ft elsewhere, except to 6 ft W-NW of Punta Eugenia.
Primary wave direction is S, except NW offshore Baja California.

For the forecast, the Tehuantepec fresh to strong gap winds will
prevail through early this morning, then moderate to fresh winds
will prevail through Mon, possibly becoming pulsing again to 
strong at night beginning Mon night. Moderate winds will prevail 
in the Gulf of California through next week, with periods of 
fresh to strong southerly winds, especially if convection 
develops in the vicinity. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail. Slight to moderate seas will prevail through the
next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Deep convection as described above prevails from offshore 
northern Ecuador to offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica, 
potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted over and 
downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle N of the
Papagayo region, along with seas of 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a surge of fresh to strong winds associated 
with deep convection may impact the waters offshore Colombia to 
Azuero Peninsula and southern Costa Rica this afternoon and
tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region 
will pulse each night/early morning through the forecast period.
NW to N winds may pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of
Panama at night beginning early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail along with slight to moderate seas. 
Seas may build to around 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands Tue 
night through Wed night in SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features for more details on Tropical 
Depression Four-E.

Aside from T.D. Four-E, surface ridging prevails north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades are noted N of
10N and W of 130W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate 
winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, including S of 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, T.D. Four-E will become a remnant low and
move to 17.0N 129.8W this afternoon, 17.4N 131.8W Sun morning, 
17.6N 133.9W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning.
Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh winds can be expected 
N of the convergence zone and W of 130W, with gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere through the upcoming weekend and into early next 
week. Moderate seas will prevail, building to around 8 ft S of 
the Equator and W of 95W early next week.

$$
Lewitsky