000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220239 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 16.1N 126.8W at 22/0300 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 11 ft are still expected across the northern semicircle. The depression is sheared with only isolated to widely scattered moderate convection occurring from 14N to 21N between 116W and 125W. The depression is forecast to become post-tropical by this time tomorrow, then dissipate by this time Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W/80W from the western Caribbean Sea southward to across the Gulf of Panama, N of 07N, moving west around 15 kt. A large area of convection is near the southern portion of the tropical wave and is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W/97W, N of 03N to across S Mexico, just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby conveciton is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W/110W, N of 05N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 105W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N100W to 07N108W, then from 07N110W to 11N120W, then resumes W of Tropical Depression Four-E near 11N130W to beyond 08N140W. Aside from convection noted above, numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 77W and 88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 88W and 100W, and from 03N to 14N between 113W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 4-6 ft are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas to 3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California from 27N to 30N, while light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail under a weak NW to SE ridge across the waters, except locally fresh near shore Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia, with seas of 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft offshore Baja California Norte. For the forecast, the Tehuantepec fresh to strong gap winds will prevail through early Sat, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Mon, possibly becoming pulsing again to strong at night beginning Mon night. Moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through next week, with periods of fresh to strong southerly winds, especially if convection develops in the vicinity. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. A set of NW swell may build seas to around 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Very deep convection as described above prevails from offshore northern Ecuador to offshore Colombia, Panama, and southern Costa Rica, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle N of the Papagayo region, along with seas of 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, a surge of fresh to strong winds associated with deep convection may impact the waters offshore Colombia to Azuero Peninsula and southern Costa Rica through Sat night. This activity and associated conditions may then shift W-NW to offshore Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala through Mon. Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will pulse each night/early morning through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail along with slight to moderate seas. Seas may build to around 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands Mon night through at least Wed night in SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features for more details on Tropical Depression Four-E. Aside from T.D. Four-E, surface ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades are noted N of 10N and W of 130W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, including S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with seas of 4-6 ft, except 6-7 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator and W of 105W. For the forecast, T.D. Four-E will move to 16.5N 128.5W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 17.0N 130.6W Sat evening, move to 17.3N 132.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected N of the convergence zone and W of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Moderate seas will prevail, building to around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 95W early next week. $$ Lewitsky