000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212109 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 15.8N 124.9W at 21/2100 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 11 ft are expected across the northern semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 04N-20N between 114W-131W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W N of 06N to across SE Mexico, over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave over water. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W N of 06N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 106W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N88W. The ITCZ extends from 09N88W to 14N120W, then resumes W of T.D. Four-E near 12N129W to beyond 08N140W. Aside from convection noted above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 12N and E of 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-7 ft are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh southerly winds and seas to 4 ft prevail across the northern half of the Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail under a weak NW to SE ridge across the waters, with seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the Tehuantepec fresh to strong gap winds will prevail through Sat, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Tue, possibly becoming pulsing again to strong by the middle of next week. Moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through next week, with periods of fresh to strong southerly winds, especially if convection develops in the vicinity. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. A set of NW swell may build seas to around 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to gentle variable winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 2-4 ft. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft in S-SW swell. Deep convection is noted offshore western Colombia to the waters south of the Gulf of Panama potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will pulse each night/early morning through the forecast period. A surge of fresh to strong winds associated with convection may impact the waters near the Gulf of Panama and Azuero Peninsula Sat afternoon and night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail along with slight to moderate seas. Seas may build to around 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Mon night through Tue night in SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features for more details on Tropical Depression Four-E. Aside from T.D. Four-E, surface ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades are noted from 10N to 15N W of 135W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 11N and W of 130W, along with seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, including S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, T.D. Four-E will move to 16.4N 126.6W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 17.0N 128.8W Sat afternoon, 17.4N 130.8W Sun morning, 17.7N 132.8W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected N of the convergence zone and W of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Moderate seas will prevail, building to around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 100W early next week. $$ ERA