785 
AXPZ20 KNHC 211557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 15.2N 123.6W at
21/1500 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted within 240 nm in the northeast semicircle of
Four-E. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 05N to across SE 
Mexico, over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, moving west around 
15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this 
tropical wave over water.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W N of 06N to near Cabo 
Corrientes, Mexico, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 100W and 
106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N88W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N88W to 13N120W, then resumes W of T.D. Four-E 
near 12N130W to beyond 08N140W. Aside from convection noted 
above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N and
E of 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-8 ft are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. A deep convective complex moved from mainland NW
Mexico into the central and northern Gulf of California N of 26N 
during the past several hours, leading to a surge of 20-30 kt 
SE-S winds with locally higher gusts. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds prevail under a weak NW to SE ridge across the 
waters, with seas of 3-5 ft. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of 
California, except higher near the convection.

For the forecast, in the Tehuantepec region, the fresh to strong
gap winds will prevail through early Sat, then moderate to 
locally fresh winds will prevail through Tue, possibly becoming 
pulsing again to strong by the middle of next week. Moderate 
winds will develop in the Gulf of California Fri night into Sun, 
and from Mon night into Tue, with periods of locally fresh to 
strong southerly winds, especially if convection develops. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. A set of NW 
swell may build seas to around 7 ft offshore Baja California 
Norte Tue night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds per recent ASCAT scatterometer data,
and seas of 5-7 ft are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Panama with seas of 3-5 ft. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas in the 4-6 ft
range in S-SW swell per recent altimeter data. Light to gentle 
winds are elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft in S-SW swell. Deep 
conveciton has moved offshore western Colombia to the waters 
south of the Gulf of Panama potentially leading to locally higher
winds and seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo 
region will pulse each night/early morning through the forecast
period. A surge of fresh to strong winds associated with 
convection may impact the waters near the Gulf of Panama and 
Azuero Peninsula Sat afternoon and night. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail along with slight to moderate seas. 
Seas may build to around 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands Mon night through Tue night in arriving SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features for more details on Tropical 
Depression Four-E.

Aside from T.D. Four-E, surface ridging prevails north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades are noted by 
recent ASCAT scatterometer data from 11N to 17N W of 133W, where 
seas are 6-8 ft. Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 11N
and W of 125W, along with seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate 
winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, including S of 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with seas of 5-7 ft, except 
4-5 ft N of 20N and E of 125W.

For the forecast, T.D. Four-E will move to 15.9N 125.4W this 
evening, 16.5N 127.6W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move 
to 16.8N 129.7W Sat evening, 17.0N 131.7W Sun morning, and 
dissipate Sun evening. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds with 
moderate seas can be expected N of the convergence zone and W of 
130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the 
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Moderate seas will 
prevail, building to around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 100W 
early next week. 

$$
ERA