000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210224 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an 1006 mb area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 13.5N121W have changed little in organization since earlier today. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm in the northeast semicircle of the low, with isolated to scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 08N to 17N between 118W and 121W. Current winds are 20-30 kt with seas of 8-10 ft, locally higher in thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for further development of this system during the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 kt. By Saturday, further development is not expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters stronger upper-level winds.There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development over the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W N of 05N to across western Guatemala and SE Mexico, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave over water, however thunderstorms are near the axis over land. The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W/105W N of 06N to Mexico near Cabo Corrientes, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave over water. The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W from 06N to 20N, moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Please see the Special Features for more details on EP95 which is co-located with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 07N93W. The ITCZ extends from 07N93W to 07N102W, then from 06N106W to 11N116W, then from 11N123W to 10N130W to 11N140W. Aside from convection noted above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 78W and 88W, from 03N to 06N between 94W and 97W, from 10N to 14N between 108W and 115W, and from 07N to 15N between 123W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 11W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-7 ft are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A locally tight pressure gradient between troughing over the Baja California Peninsula and weak NW to SE ridging near the outer offshore waters boundary is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds within 120 nm of Baja California, locally strong nearshore of Baja California Norte. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds with seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, regional and global forecast models show a convective complex currently approaching the eastern shore of the Gulf of California moving west-northwest during the next several hours with a surge of rapidly increasing SE-S winds moving into the central and northern Gulf of California. Local gusts over gale-force may be possible with this convection. Locally high seas will also be possible. In the Tehuantepec region, the fresh to strong gap winds will prevail through Fri night into early Sat, then moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail through Tue, possibly becoming fresh to strong late Tue night/early Wed. Moderate winds will develop in the Gulf of California Fri night into Sun with periods of locally fresh to strong southerly winds, especially if similar convection develops. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 3-4 ft. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft in S-SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will pulse each night/early morning through the forecast period, except moderate Sun night/Mon. A surge of fresh to strong winds associated with convection may impact the waters near the Gulf of Panama and Azuero Peninsula Sat afternoon and night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail along with slight to moderate seas. Seas may build to around 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Mon night through Tue night in arriving SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features for more details on EP95 currently located near 13.5N121W. Aside from EP95, surface ridging prevails north of 20N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N and W of 110W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 20N with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range, locally 8 ft near 03.4S120W. For the forecast, aside from EP95, moderate to locally fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected N of the convergence zone and W of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. $$ Lewitsky