000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201441 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization overnight. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development of this system during the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves west- northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is not expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters stronger upper-level winds. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development over the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W N of 05N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W N of 05N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 100W and 106W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W/120W from 06N to 20N, moving west around 15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES for more on EP95 which is co-located with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N98W to 07N110W to 13N119W to 10N122W. The ITCZ extends from 10N122W to 09N140W. Aside from convection noted above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 78W and 110W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 113W and 120W, and from 07N to 15N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near-gale force winds and seas of 6-8 ft are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting gentle to moderate NW across the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters along with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds with seas of 2-3 ft prevail. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle Sat night. Moderate to fresh winds will diminish in the northern Gulf of California tonight and become moderate along the entire gulf Fri night into Sun with periods of locally fresh southerly winds. In the Tehuantepec region, the fresh to strong gap winds will continue through Fri afternoon. Then moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas to 8 ft are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Fri morning, and increase fresh to strong speeds again Mon night. Moderate winds and seas will affect the region between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Mon night. Otherwise, moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to light to gentle speeds today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more on EP95. Aside from EP95, surface ridging prevails north of 16N and W of 117W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N and W of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 20N with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast aside from EP95, moderate to locally fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected through the rest of the week. $$ AL