000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191436
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W N of 03N, moving west 
around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
05N between 80W and 87W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W N of 05N, moving west 
around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
10N between 95W and 100W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 06N to 20N, moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 05N to 15N between 110W and 115W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W from 03N to 19W, moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is from 03N to 10N between 130W and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 12N106W to 09N130W. 
The ITCZ extends from 08N134W to 05N140W. Aside from convection
noted above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to
14N between 120W and 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7 to 8 ft, are over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are along 
the Baja California offshore waters with seas to 5 ft. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 5 ft, except for 1-2 
ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist 
in the Tehuantepec region through Thu evening. A ridge will 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with gentle to
moderate northerly winds and moderate seas through Fri. Gentle 
to moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California will become
moderate with locally fresh today and Thu, seas are expected to 
be slight to moderate.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are over and downwind of
the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf 
of Panama. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas to 6 ft. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will to pulse in the
Papagayo region through Thu. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
with moderate to rough seas will persist off El Salvador through
today. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected in the Gulf of Panama until Thu morning.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds with moderately seas are
forecast between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the
remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. EP95, with fresh to strong
winds and seas to 8 ft, is located near 11.5N113.0W. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are elsewhere north of the ITCZ
and west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast, convection associated with EP95 has become 
better organized since yesterday, and a short-lived tropical 
depression could form during the next couple of days while it 
moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the 
central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, the 
system is forecast to move over cooler waters, and further 
development is not expected. There is currently a low chance for
tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a medium
chance for development over the next 7 days. Otherwise, moderate
to locally fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected 
through the rest of the week.

$$
AL