000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191003
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 05N, moving west 
around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to
12N between 95W and 100W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 06N to 20N, moving
west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection 
is from 05N to 15N between 100W and 115W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 131W from 03N to 19W, moving
west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is 
from 04N to 10N between 130W and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N86W to 05N93W to 10N113W to
08N132W. The ITCZ extends from 08N132W to 05N140W. For 
information about convection, see the Tropical Waves Section. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7 to 8 ft, are over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate NW winds are along the Baja
California offshore waters with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 5 ft, except for 1-2 ft 
over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist 
in the Tehuantepec region through Thu evening. A ridge will 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with gentle to
moderate northerly winds and moderate seas through Fri. Gentle 
to moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California will become
moderate with locally fresh today and Thu, seas are expected to 
be slight to moderate.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are over and downwind of
the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf 
of Panama. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas to 6 ft. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will to pulse in
the Papagayo region through Thu. Moderate to fresh easterly 
winds with moderate to rough seas will persist off El Salvador 
through today. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Panama until Thu 
morning. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with moderately seas 
are forecast between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the 
remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds and seas 
of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, are north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Gentle 
to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast, winds will increase associated with a tropical
wave, currently near 111W, as it moves westward. There is a low 
chance of tropical cyclone development with this tropical wave in
the next 5 days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds with
moderate seas can be expected through the rest of the week.

$$
Ramos