000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182013
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W N of 01N, moving west 
around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 60 nm of the wave axis S of 10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 01N to 20N, moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 
15N between 104W and 110W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 01N to 21N, moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N
between 120W and 126W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N100W to 10N110W to
09N122W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N 
between 95W and 103W, from 02N to 10N between 111W and 120W, and
from 02N to 10N between 128W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7 to 8 ft, are over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 4-5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-2 ft 
over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist 
in the Tehuantepec region through Thu evening. A ridge will 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with gentle to
moderate northerly winds and moderate seas through Fri. Gentle 
to moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California will become
moderate with locally fresh Wed and Thu, seas are expected to be
slight to moderate.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are over and downwind
of the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds are over the 
Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will to pulse in
the Papagayo region through Thu. Moderate to fresh easterly 
winds with moderate to rough seas will persist off El Salvador 
through Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Panama until Thu 
morning. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with moderately seas 
are forecast between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the 
remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds and seas 
of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, are north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle 
to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast, winds will increase associated with a tropical
wave, currently near 108W, as it moves westward. There is a low 
chance of tropical cyclone development with this tropical wave in
the next 5 days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds with
moderate seas can be expected through the rest of the week.

$$
AL