000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Calvin is centered near 14.5N 127.5W at 15/0900 UTC moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 120W and 130W. Seas in excess of 12 ft seas extend within 210 nm N semicircle and 150 nm S semicircle with maximum seas estimated to reach 35 ft. Further weakening is expected through the middle part of next week. Looking ahead, swells generated by Calvin are expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Calvin Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave extends its axis along 103W and N of 05N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N120W. The ITCZ extends from 10N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection are noted from 03N to and E of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and extends toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds are over the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. The most recent scatterometer pass indicate moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell are noted. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the weekend generating gentle to moderate NW winds with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of California with seas of 3 ft or less. Fresh winds will pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through the middle of next week. Hurricane Calvin will continue to move away from the Mexican offshore waters over the next 24 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft persist in the Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted over the remainder of the offshore waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted south of 02N where seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast in the Papagayo region through the middle of next week with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds will dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters, with the exception of gentle to moderate southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and gentle to moderate E winds across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on Hurricane Calvin. Aside from Calvin, a ridge prevails across the north waters anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center located N of the area near 34N137W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of the ITCZ and W of 130W with seas of 5 to 7 ft based on altimeter data. S of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate with seas ranging 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell. Wind and seas increase near the convective activity along the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. For the forecast, Hurricane Calvin will continue to move away from the Mexican offshore waters reaching 15.0N 129.7W this afternoon, 15.7N 132.6W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.4N 135.5W Sun afternoon, 17.0N 138.6W Mon morning, 17.5N 142.0W Mon afternoon, and 18.1N 145.5W Tue morning. Calvin will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.1N 152.7W by early Wed. Seas in excess of 8 ft generating by Calvin, will continue to propagate across the open waters, covering the area from 08N to 19N and W of 125W through late Mon. $$ ERA