000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110843
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jul 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 103W and 107W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 06N to 16N between 100W
and 110W. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that the
system does not yet have a well-defined center, but is producing
winds near tropical-storm-force to its west. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during 
the next day or two. The system is expected to move westward to 
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the next several days, 
remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a high 
chance for development in the next 48 hours and also for the next
7 days. In anticipation of tropical cyclone development, a gale 
warning has been issued beginning late tonight. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W/104W from 03N to 17N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is co-located with EP94 
discussed above. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to EP94 near 11N103.5W to
14N113W to 07.5N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N130W to 
beyond 05N140W. Aside from convection noted with EP94 above, 
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted east
of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 11N
between 84W and 92W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on EP94

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the Baja 
California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 5-7 
ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf 
of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with 
seas ranging 2-4 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft 
are found over the Tehuantepec region, as well as south of 
southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge over the regional waters
will weaken a little by mid-week. Fresh northerly gap winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, pulsing to strong late
tonight. EP94 is located a few hundred miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression 
or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or two.
The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the next several days, remaining well offshore
of the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance for development 
in the next 48 hours. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are 
noted over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to 
moderate winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft in 
decaying southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong at night tonight through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on EP94.

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1027 mb high 
pressure center N of the area near 34N140W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 
ft, north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. To the south of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. New 
southerly swell has increased seas to 6-8 ft S of 02N and west of
115W. Seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere across the waters S of 10N 
and W of 90W.

Moderate to locally fresh winds, with seas in the 6-8 ft range,
will continue today before starting to decrease. Southerly swell
will support seas to 8 ft over the waters S of 02N today, then 
subside afterward.

$$
AL