629 
AXPZ20 KNHC 110232
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N
between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 07N to 16N between 98W and
110W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next couple of days. The system is expected to move westward
to west-northwestward over the next several days, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance for 
development in the next 48 hours and also for the next 7 days.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W/102W from 03N to 17N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. This wave is co-located with EP94 
discussed above. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to EP94 near 10.5N101.5W 
to 14N111W to 05N135W. The ITCZ continues from 05N135W to beyond
05N140W. Aside from convection noted with EP94 above, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N
between 80W and 93W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on EP94

A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California. Moderate NW winds are noted over the 
Baja California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 
6-8 ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the 
Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail 
with seas ranging 2-4 ft except for higher seas of 4-5 ft in 
southerly swell across the entrance. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5-6 ft are found over the Tehuantepec region, northeast 
of EP94, while slightly higher seas of 6-7 ft are just southwest 
of there.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge over the regional waters
will weaken a little by mid-week. Fresh northerly gap winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue. These winds will pulse 
to strong late at night and into the mornings through Wed. EP94 
is located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the next couple of days. The system is expected to move westward 
to west-northwestward over the next several days, remaining well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance for 
development in the next 48 hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft are 
elsewhere N of 10N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, 
are noted over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to 
moderate winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft in 
decaying southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong at night tonight through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on EP94.

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1027 mb high 
pressure center N of the area near 35N138W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and the remnant 
trough of EP93 as well as the monsoon trough is supporting 
moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, north of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, 
gentle to moderate winds are noted. New southerly swell has 
increased seas to 6-8 ft S of 02N and west of 115W. Seas of 5-6 
ft are elsewhere across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

Moderate to locally fresh winds, with seas in the 6-8 ft range,
will continue through Tue before starting to decrease. Southerly
swell will support seas to 8 ft over the waters S of 02N through
Tue, then subside afterward.

$$
AL