000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Presently, numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from
13N to 18N between 100W-106W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 09N to 13N between 100W-107W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
additional development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week. The system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of
Mexico. There is a medium chance for development in the next 48 
hours and a high chance of development in the next 7 days. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 05N to 17N, moving 
westward at 10 kt. This wave is co-located with EP94 discussed 
above. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W from 10N to 22N. This 
wave is co-located with EP93. Associated convection is discussed 
below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to EP94 near 10N99W 
to 13N108W to 10N122W to 06N132W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N132W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from convection noted with EP94
above, numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 05N
to 09N between 77W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
120 nm S of trough between 115W-122W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP94

There continues to be very minimal shower activity well removed 
from the center of EP93. This activity is within 30 nm of 
17N117W. Tropical cyclone development is no longer expected with 
this low. Fresh to locally strong winds are within 240 nm of the 
low in the NW quadrant. Mostly fresh winds are elsewhere within 
180 nm of the low. Seas of 8-9 ft are in the vicinity of the low.

Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
are noted over the Baja California offshore waters. Seas over 
this area are in the 6-8 ft range in a mix of northerly and 
southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft except for 
higher seas of 6-8 ft in southerly swell across the entrance. 
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are found over the 
Tehuantepec region, north of EP94. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the
regional waters through early this week. Fresh northerly gap 
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue. These winds 
will pulse to fresh to strong late at night and into the mornings
during the rest of the week. The low will continue westward 
while weakening. EP94 is located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for additional development of this low during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the middle to latter part of this week. The system is 
expected to move westward to west-northwestward, remaining well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for 
development in the next 48 hours and a high chance of development
in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5
ft are elsewhere N of 10N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 
4-5 ft, are noted over the remainder of waters north of 02N. 
Gentle to moderate winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 
5-6 ft in decaying southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Low pressure, EP94, has formed south of 
Tehuantepec leading to an increase in winds across the waters W 
of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to 
strong at night tonight through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP94.

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1026 mb high 
pressure center well N of the area near 36N140W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and EP93 is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 20N and E of 125W. Seas 
over this area are in the 7-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate 
northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Decaying swell from 
the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 5-6 ft 
across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift slightly SE today. 
This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 
moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 
Northerly swell in the waters N of 29N and E of 124W will combine
with E to SE swell generated by EP93, across the waters E of 
125W Mon through Tue. Southerly swell will build seas to 8 ft 
over the waters S of 02N early this week. 

$$
Aguirre