000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090831
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a large
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Low pressure of 1005 mb is analyzed near
17N111W. Presently, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 20N between 104W and 117W. Winds
of 20-30 kt, and seas to 12 ft are associated to this low
pressure. This system has not significantly changed in
organization during the past several hours. However, any increase
in organization would lead to the development of a tropical
depression later today. By tonight and Monday, the system is
expected to move west-northwestward into a less favorable
environment well west of the coast of mainland Mexico. A Gale 
Warning remains in effect for the outer offshore waters of SW 
Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 
48 hours. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 05N. It is 
moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 08N to 21N. This 
wave is co-located with EP93, discussed above. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 10N91W to EP93 near 
17N111W to 07N130W. The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N 
to 16N between 85W and 101W, and from 07N to 20N between 104W 
and 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP93.

Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with 
gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere across the remainder of 
the Baja California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in 
the 6-8 ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In 
the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds 
prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft except to 5 ft in southerly 
swell across the entrance. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6
ft are found over the Tehuantepec region. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the
regional waters through early next week. Winds off of Baja
California Norte will pulse to fresh tonight. A large area of 
low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico has changed little in organization during the
past several hours, any increase in organization would lead to 
the development of a tropical depression later today. By tonight
and Monday, the system is expected to move west-northwestward 
into a less favorable environment well west of the coast of 
mainland Mexico. A Gale Warning is in effect for the outer 
offshore waters W of 108W. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure a
few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the 
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the early to middle portions of next week. The system is 
expected to move westward to west-northwestward, remaining well 
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This 
system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a 
high chance in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are 
noted elsewhere north of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds are found
south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft in decaying southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Low pressure is expected to form S of 
Tehuantepec early this week leading to freshening winds across 
the waters W of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong at night Mon through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1027 mb high 
pressure center near 36N147W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds
and seas of 4-6 ft prevail north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough 
west of about 120W. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, 
gentle to moderate S winds are noted. Swell from the Southern 
Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 6-7 ft across the waters 
S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift slightly SE through 
Mon. This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to
moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 
Northerly swell in the waters N of 29N and E of 125W will 
combine with SE to E swell generated by EP93, across the waters E
of 125W Mon through Tue.

$$
AL