000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090234
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a large
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Low pressure of 1005 mb is analyzed near
16.5N110W. Presently, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 20N between 104W and 117W. Winds
of 20-30 kt, and seas to 12 ft are associated to this low
pressure. While this system has changed little in organization
during the last several hours, any increase in organization would
lead to the development of a tropical depression tonight or on
Sunday. By Monday, the system is expected to move west-
northwestward into a less favorable environment well west of the 
coast of mainland Mexico. A Gale Warning remains in effect for 
the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico. There is a high chance of
tropical formation in the next 48 hours. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W north of 05N. It is 
moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 08N to 21N. This 
wave is co-located with EP93, discussed above. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N92W to EP93 near 
16.5N110W to 06N134W. The ITCZ extends from 06N134W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N 
to 16N between 87W and 102W, and from 07N to 20N between 104W and
117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP93.

Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with 
gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere across the Baja California 
offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 5-7 ft range in a
mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf of California,
gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4
ft except to 5 ft in southerly swell across the entrance. Gentle
to moderate winds are noted elsewhere across the Mexico offshore
waters N of Cabo Corrientes with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 6-7 ft are found over the
Tehuantepec region.  

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the
regional waters through early next week. Winds off of Baja
California Norte will pulse to fresh at night through the
weekend. A large area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has changed little in 
organization during the last several hours, any increase in 
organization would lead to the development of a tropical 
depression tonight or on Sunday. By Monday, the system is 
expected to move west-northwestward into a less favorable 
environment well west of the coast of mainland Mexico. A Gale 
Warning is in effect for the outer offshore waters W of 108W. 
Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure a few hundred miles south of
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for gradual development during the next several days, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to 
middle portions of next week. The system is expected to move 
westward to west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a low 
chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the
next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are found N of 10N, with seas of5-6 ft.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of 02N, with 
seas of 6-7 ft in south- southwest swell. Gentle to moderate 
winds are found south of 02N, where seas are also 6-7 ft in 
southerly swell. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Southerly swell will subside across the 
regional waters Sun night. Low pressure is expected to form S of 
Tehuantepec late Sun or Mon leading to freshening winds across 
the waters W of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
starting Sun, pulsing to strong at night Mon through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1028 mb high
pressure center near 37N146W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds
and seas of 5-7 ft in southerly swell prevail north of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough west of about 120W. To the south of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S winds are noted. Large 
swell from the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 
6-8 ft across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the 
northern waters through tonight, then shift slightly SE Sun 
through Mon. This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough to moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft 
range. Northerly swell recently propagated into the waters N of 
29N and E of 125W raising seas there to around 9 ft. The swell
will then combine with SE to E swell generated by EP93, across 
the waters E of 125W Mon through Tue.

$$
AL