000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080232 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to become better organized. At this time, scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 10N to 18.5N between 102W and 113W. Winds of 20-30 kt are found with this system, with seas of 10 to 12 ft are estimated within this area of winds from 11N and 16N between 103W and 107W. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland Mexico. In anticipation of this, a gale warning has been issued for the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico beginning Sat afternoon. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection is seen along the base of the wave and is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W-107W from 07N northward, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is co-located with EP93, discussed above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N55W to EP93 near 15N106.5W to 08N132W. The ITCZ extends from 08N132W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 83W and 100W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 10N to 18.5N between 102W and 113W, with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection elsewhere from 06N to 20N between 100W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 116W and 128W, and from 08N to 11N between 133W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on EP93. Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 5-7 ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft except to 5 ft in southerly swell across the entrance. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters N of Cabo Corrientes with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell. Light to gentle winds and seas of 6-7 ft are found over the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the regional waters through early next week. Winds off of Baja California Norte will pulse to fresh at night through the weekend. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles SW of southwestern Mexico...EP93...continues to become better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form from this disturbance within the next day or so while it moves generally W-NW away from the coast of Mexico. Gale warnings are now in effect for the outer offshore waters W of 108.5W. A trough of low pressure located well south-southeast of southeastern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward parallel to, but well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This second system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted north of 02N, with seas of 6-7 ft in south-southwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 6-8 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the next several days. Strong southerly swell will gradually subside across the regional waters through Sat. Low pressure is expected to form S of Tehuantepec late Sun or Mon leading to freshening winds across the waters W of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region starting Sun will pulse to strong at night Mon through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails north of 20N, anchored by a 1028 mb surface high near 40N148W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds and seas of 5-8 ft in southerly swell prevail north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S winds are noted. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 7-8 ft across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the northern waters through Sat, then shift slightly SE Sun through Mon. This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross- equatorial southerly swell in the southern waters will subside through Sat. Northerly swell will move into the waters E of 125W Sun and Mon to raise seas there to around 8 ft, then combine with SE to E swell generated by EP93, across the waters E of 130W on Mon and Tue. $$ AL