000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070840
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of southwestern Mexico is starting to show signs of organization.
At this time, scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails
from 07N to 20N between 105W and 120W. Seas to 9 ft are noted 
from 07N to 12N between 100W and 110W. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the 
next couple of days while it moves generally WNW away from the 
coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation in 
the next 48 hours.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave has its axis along 104W from 06N northward, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
within 100 nm of the wave's axis. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 06N, moving W at 
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of
the wave's axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 15N104W to 07N126W. The ITCZ extends from 07N126W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N-20N and E of 120W. Scattered showers are noted along the 
ITCZ. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate NW winds are noted in
the Baja California Norte offshore waters with gentle to moderate
NW winds elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. 
Seas range 5-7 ft in southerly swell. In the Gulf of California,
gentle southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft. Gentle 
to moderate winds are noted across the southern Mexico offshore 
waters with 6-8 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted in the offshore waters east of 110W 
associated to the monsoon trough, Special Feature, and a 
tropical wave described above. Some of the stronger thunderstorms
could produce gusty winds. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area.
Fresh winds off of Baja California Norte will continue pulsing at
night through the weekend. Looking ahead, a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south of SW Mexico is 
forecast become better organized through the weekend and a 
tropical depression will likely form while it moves WNW off the 
coast of Mexico. Winds and seas will increase as the low 
develops. Another broad area of low pressure could form a few 
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico early next 
week. Some gradual development of this system is possible while 
it moves westward. This second system has a low chance of 
formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted north of 08N. Seas range 5-7 ft 
due to a long-period southwest swell. Gentle to moderate SW winds
are present south of 08N. Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell 
along the Panama and Colombia offshore waters. Swell continues 
across the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters with 
seas 7-9 ft in southerly swell. Scattered thunderstorms are 
noted off the coasts of Colombia, and Central America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the 
next several days. Southerly swell with 9 ft seas will continue
to subside this morning. Seas will drop below 8 ft later today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 10N and west of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft due to a southerly 
swell prevail north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. To the south of
the ITCZ, moderate to fresh winds are noted. Large swell from 
the Southern Hemisphere generating seas of 8-9 ft is propagating 
through the waters south of 05N between 90W and 127W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the 
northern waters through the weekend. Gentle to moderate trade 
winds will prevail north of the ITCZ with seas in the 5-7 ft 
range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will in the southern
waters will subside tonight. Seas will drop below 8 ft by this 
afternoon outside of the area of low pressure described in the 
Special Features section above. 

$$
ERA