448 AXPZ20 KNHC 062104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 102W from 09N northward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis along 111W from 08N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 50 nm of the wave's axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 15N102W to 15N122W. The ITCZ extends from 09N128W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection continues along the Pacific coast of Colombia and Panama affecting the adjacent waters E of 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 19N between 97W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 05N to 13N between 88W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate NW winds are noted in the Baja California Norte offshore waters with gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas range 5-6 ft in southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-3 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the southern Mexico offshore waters with 6-7 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the offshore waters east of 97W associated to a couple of tropical waves described above. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty winds. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area. Winds off of Baja California Norte are expected to become fresh tonight and will continue pulsing through the weekend. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of SW Mexico is forecast become better organized this weekend and a tropical depression will likely form while it moves WNW off the coast of mainland Mexico. Winds and seas will increase as the low develops. Another broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward to west- northwestward. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted north of 09N. Seas range 5-7 ft due to a long- period southwest swell. Gentle to moderate SW winds are present south of 09N. Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell along the Panama and Colombia offshore waters. Swell continues across the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters with seas 7-9 ft in southerly swell. Strong thunderstorms are noted off the coasts of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. There are also thunderstorms in the Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the next several days. Southerly swell with 9 ft seas will begin to subside later today. Seas will drop below 8 ft by Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails north of 15N and west of 120W. Its associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily due to a southerly swell north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. To the south of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh winds are noted. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere generating seas of 8-9 ft is propagating through the waters south of 12N between 88W and 126W. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the northern waters through the weekend. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail north of the ITCZ with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will in the southern waters will begin to subside by tonight. Seas will drop below 8 ft by Fri afternoon outside of the low pressure in the Special Features section. $$ AReinhart