000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040212
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave has its axis along 94W from 05N to southern 
Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within
50 nm of the axis of the wave from 04N to 09N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 11N125W. The ITCZ extends from 11N125W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 14N between 97W
and 123W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro. This is producing light to 
gentle northwest winds across the Baja California offshore waters
with locally moderate winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas range 5-6
ft, mostly in southerly swell with NW swell in the northern Baja
California offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft. Light
to gentle winds prevail across the southern Mexico offshore 
waters with 5-6 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the offshore waters of Oaxaca to Jalisco.
Some of these storms are producing gusty winds. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will develop over the 
central Gulf will diminish by early Tue. Looking ahead, a broad 
area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles off 
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system and a tropical depression could form 
late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-
northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of 
Mexico. There is a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours 
and a medium chance in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas at 5-6 ft due to a long-period 
southwest swell prevail across the offshore waters north of 05N, 
while gentle to moderate south winds are present south of 05N. 
Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell along the Panama, Colombia, 
and Ecuador offshore waters. Swell is increasing across the 
Galapagos Islands, with seas 7-8 ft across those offshore 
waters. Scattered showers are noted across the Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo at night through Wed night. Southerly swell with
8-9 ft seas will continue across the Galapagos Islands and
offshore Ecuador through Thu, subsiding by Thu night into Fri.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

GOES-W satellite imagery shows that the remnant low of former 
tropical cyclone Adrian is located near 20N120W with a pressure 
of 1008 mb. The latest scatterometer data shows winds around the
low are moderate to fresh, especially in the northwest quadrant.
No significant convection is associated with this low. The low 
is forecast to continue weakening as it remains on a west- 
northwest motion, becoming a trough tonight.

High pressure is present north of about 17N and west of 120W. Its 
associated gradient is allowing for mostly gentle to moderate north
to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily due to a 
southerly swell north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. To the south 
of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds, with some areas of fresh 
winds, are noted. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere 
generating seas of 8-9 ft is propagating through the waters south
of 12N between 92W and 130W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 
in place over the northern waters through the middle part of 
the week, while at the same time the cyclonic circulation of the
remnant low of Adrian continues to spin down. This should 
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ with 
seas in the 5-7 ft range. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will 
continue to propagate across the waters to the south of 08N and 
between 90W-130W over the next couple of days maintaining seas 
of 8-9 ft.

$$
ERA