000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 02 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 19.3N 116.1W 1005 mb at 2 AM PDT moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that Adrian's overall cloud structure continues to be impacted by easterly shear as very minimal convection is present to its northwest. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong type convection is observed within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Additional weakening is anticipated and Adrian is forecast to become a remnant low later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 84W north of 03N to across northern Costa Rica, to central Nicaragua and to eastern Nicaragua and southeastern Honduras. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are along and within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 03N to 08N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia westward to northern Costa Rica near 11N85W, and continues to 11N92W and to 09N102W. It resumes at 13N119W to 10N129W and to 06N136W. The ITCZ extends from 06N136W to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 10N between 85W-88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 99W-102W, and within 60 nm south of the trough and ITCZ between 121W-13W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 98W-102W, and within 30 nm south of the trough between 119W-124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Adrian. The remnant low of Beatriz is located about 150 nm west-southwest of the Islas Tres Maria islands. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of 22N108W, while scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted over this part of the discussion area. For the forecast, other than the impacts from Adrian already described in the Special Features section, fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon, becoming strong by mid-week. Looking ahead during the middle to latter part of the upcoming week, a broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft in southwest swell prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through mid week across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Adrian. High pressure ridging north of 25N is weakening ahead of cold front moving through the northeast Pacific. The pattern is supporting mostly moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. An area of fresh to strong southwest winds to the south of Adrian along with seas of 8-9 ft. This area of winds is expected to diminish to mostly fresh winds this afternoon as Adrian weakens further while tracking westward. An overnight ASCAT pass highlighted an area of mostly fresh south to southwest winds to the south of the Monsoon trough between 123W-125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, with seas generally of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to weaken through Sun as the cold front shifts eastward, well north of the discussion area. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N, and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Fresh southwest winds south of Adrian from 10N to 15N between 110W-120W will shift west-northwestward with Adrian leading to seas that could reach 8 ft, but this will diminish through today as Adrian weakens. New moderate-sized south-southwest swell will cross the equator through Sun night, building seas to 7-9 ft east of 120W and south of 03N. $$ Aguirre