000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 02 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 19.2N 115.6W at 02/0300 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Last visible imagery show that the cyclone continues to be impacted by easterly shear as the center has decoupled from the area of convection that is present to its northwest. This convection consists of the scattered moderate to isolated strong type within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The extent of seas 12 ft or greater has been diminishing as Adrian weakens, currently extending 60 to 75 nm. Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Adrian is forecast to become a remnant low on Sun and dissipate early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 84W north of 03N to across central Panama and to eastern Nicaragua and southeastern Honduras. It is moving westward t 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 80W and the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 09N100W. It resumes at 11N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is noted from 09N to 12N between 95W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Adrian. The remnant low of Beatriz is located about 100 nm northwest of Cabo Corrientes. The earlier observed convection has weakened to isolated showers and thunderstorms from 19N to 21N between 105W and 110W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, other than the impacts from Adrian already described in the Special Features section, fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon, becoming strong by mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft in southwest swell prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through mid week across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Adrian. High pressure ridging north of 25N is weakening ahead of cold front moving through the northeast Pacific. The pattern is supporting mostly moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, with seas generally of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to weaken through Sun as the cold front shifts eastward, well north of the discussion area. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N, and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Fresh southwest winds south of Adrian from 10N to 15N between 110W-120W will shift west-northwestward with Adrian leading to seas that could reach 8 ft, but this will diminish through Sun as Adrian weakens. New moderate-sized south-southwest swell will cross the equator through Sun night, building seas to 7-9 ft east of 120W and south of 03N. $$ Aguirre