000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012117 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 18.7N 115.0W at 01/2100 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Adrian is experiencing SE shear, partially exposing a broad low level center. Scattered moderate convection extends out 90 nm in the northwest quadrant. The extent of seas 12 ft or greater has been diminishing as Adrian weakens, currently extending 60 to 75 nm. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next couple of days as Adrian continues westward into cooler waters, and it is forecast to become post- tropical on Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Meanwhile Beatriz had become a remnant low off Cabo Corrientes. The system became very disorganized after interacting with the higher terrain over west-central Mexico. Mariners should still be aware of lingering rough seas, and possible thunderstorms. Swell generated from Beatriz and Adrian may still be causing areas of rough surf along the coasts of Jalisco, Colima and Baja California Sur. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is currently passing through Costa Rica along 82W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 06N between 78W and 83W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 09N100W. It resumes at 11N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is noted from 09N to 12N between 95W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Adrian and the remnants of Beatriz. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, other than the impacts from Adrian and the remanants of Beatriz already described in the Special Features section, fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon, becoming strong by mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft in southwest swell prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through mid week across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Adrian. Ridging north of 25N is weakening ahead of cold front moving through the northeast Pacific. The pattern is supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, with seas generally of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to weaken through Sun as the cold front shifts eastward, well north of the discussion area. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N, and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Fresh southwest winds south of Adrian from 10N to 15N between 110W-120W will shift west- northwestward with Adrian leading to seas that could reach 8 ft, but this will diminish through Sun as Adrian weakens. New moderate-sized south- southwest swell will cross the equator through Sun night, building seas to 7-9 ft east of 120W and south of 03N. $$ Christensen