000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 01 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beatriz is centered near 18.4N 103.9W at 01/0300 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Latest satellite imagery reveals the center of Beatriz remains just offshore Mexico near Manzanillo, with rainbands already having moved inland. The imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 30 nm in the NE semicircle of Beatriz. Beatriz will continue along the coast to Cabo Corrientes through Sat night, then weaken to a tropical storm west of the Tres Marias Islands by Sat evening. It is forecast to dissipate Mon night west of Los Cabos and dissipating farther west Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Hurricane Adrian is centered near 18.1N 113.5W at 01/0300 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the earlier apparent eye feature is no longer visible. The imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 30 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the western semicircle. Its present motion is forecast to continue during the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the west on Mon. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 180 nm of the center. Adrian will move close to Clarion Island early Sat, then weaken to a tropical storm as it moves west of the area Sat evening, before weakening to a remnant low Mon morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 136W/137W from 05N to 16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 07N90W to 06N103W. It resumes at 14N117W to 09N128W to 05N135W to 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 80W-83W, also from 05N to 09N between 85W-89W and from 03N to 06N between 89W-92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 05N between 81W-87W and from 03N to 06N between 92W-95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricanes Beatriz and Adrian. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, Beatriz is forecast to remain a hurricane into early Sat if its center remains just offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Weakening is expected later on Sat through Mon once Beatriz begins to move away from west-central Mexico. for the next day or so, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday afternoon. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western Mexico from the state of Michoacan northwest to Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Interests near Clarion Island should monitor the track of movement of Hurricane Adrian, expected to move close to the island through Sat. Elsewhere, fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon, becoming strong by mid week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4-6 ft in southwest swell prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through mid week across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian. A ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N141W to Baja California. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, with seas generally of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 25N, and seas in the 5-7 ft range. Strong southwest monsoonal winds between 106W-115W will shift west- northwestward with Adrian leading to seas that could reach 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized south-southwest swell will cross the equator through Sun night building seas to 7-9 ft east of 130W and south of 10N. $$ Aguirre