630 AXPZ20 KNHC 302129 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Adrian is centered near 17.7N 112.9W at 30/2100 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 180 nm of the center. Adrian will move close to Clarion Island early Sat, then weaken to a tropical storm as it moves west of the area Sat evening, before weakening to a remnant low late Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Hurricane Beatriz is centered near 17.8N 103.1W at 30/2100 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 30 nm in the NE semicircle of Beatriz, within hurricane force winds funneling along the coast. Beatriz will continue along the coast to Cabo Corrientes through Sat night, then weaken to a tropical storm west of the Tres Marias Islands by early Sun, before becoming a remnant low Mon night west of Los Cabos and dissipating farther west Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 135W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07N102W and from 14N115W to 05N135W to 05N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 80W and 90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian and Tropical Storm Beatriz. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, Beatriz is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next day or so, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday afternoon. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Interests near Clarion Island should monitor the movement of Hurricane Adrian, expected to move close to the island late today through Sat. Elsewhere, fresh winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California by Mon, becoming strong by mid week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in SW swell prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. For the forecast, .Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through mid week across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian. A ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 33N141W to Baja California. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 ft N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas generally of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds between 106W and 115W will shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate- sized SW swell will cross the equator through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ Christensen