000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Adrian is centered near 16.7N 111.3W at 30/0300 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is evident with 270 nm SW and 90 nm NW semicircles. Rough to very rough seas are noted within 210 nm of the center. Adrian will move to 17.1N 112.3W Fri morning, 17.6N 113.5W Fri evening, then weaken to a tropical storm near 18.0N 114.6W Sat morning. Tropical Storm Adrian will be near 18.5N 115.8W Sat evening, 18.7N 116.7W Sun morning, and weaken to a remnant low as it moves W of the area Sun evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Beatriz is centered near 15.5N 100.3W at 30/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is active within 180 nm SE and 120 nm NW semicircles. Rough seas are noted within 60 nm on in the NE quadrant of Beatriz, within gale force winds funneling along the coast. Beatriz will move to 16.5N 101.5W Fri morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 103.2W Fri evening. Hurricane Beatriz will reach 19.3N 104.9W Sat morning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.1N 106.0W Sat evening. Tropical Storm Beatriz will be near 21.0N 107.2W Sun morning, and 21.5N 108.0W Sun evening. Beatriz will change little in intensity as it moves near the southern tip of Baja California late Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 132W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N93W and from 13N117W to 05N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 90W and 93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian and Tropical Storm Beatriz. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, Beatriz is expected to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane on Fri, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas Fri and Sat. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Interests near Clarion Island should monitor the movement of Hurricane Adrian, expected to move close to the island late Fri through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 89W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters E of 90W. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region tonight into Fri before diminishing. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period across the waters offshore of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and move into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri evening through Sat, followed by another pulse of SW swell early Sun through Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Adrian. A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 33N140W to Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 ft N of the ITCZ to about 25N and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas generally of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted SW of Adrian from 10N to 14N between 107W and 115W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds between 106W and 115W will shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate- sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ KONARIK