238 AXPZ20 KNHC 291003 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Adrian (EP01) appears to have strengthened slightly overnight, while moving slowly westward. At 0900 UTC, Adrian is centered near 15.5N 109.9W moving W-NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. A slow motion toward the west- northwest is expected during the next few days. Conditions appear favorable for some minor strengthening through tonight, then weakening is likely to begin Friday night or Sat. Seas to 12 ft are expected within 180 nm N semicircle, 150 nm SE and 60 nm SW quadrants, with maximum seas estimated at 26 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12.5N to 17N between 106.5W and 111.5W. S to SW swell associated with Adrian will move into the offshore waters of Cabo Corrientes, Las Tres Marias Islands and Baja California Sur today and into the southern Gulf of California tonight through Fri. Adrian is expected to veer NW and away from the offshore waters Sun and Mon and weaken considerably. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Adrian Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Two-E (EP02): Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in organization about an area of low pressure off of the Mexican coast SW of Puerto Angel tonight, and a new T.D. has formed. T.D. Two-E is located near 14N 97.8W 1006 mb at 0900 UTC moving W-NW at 12 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 11.5N between 92W and 100.5W. Strong E to SE winds to 30 kt are occurring within 180 nm of the coast of Mexico south to southwest of Puerto Angel where seas are likely 8 to 11 ft. Two-E is expected to continue on a W-NW track and intensify to a tropical storm this afternoon, then move along or just offshore of the coast of SW Mexico through Sat before turning more NW towards Baja Sur. Two-E is expected to reach hurricane strength Sat afternoon near the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the coastal zones from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. Refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.D. Two-E Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 97W at 06Z, and has evolved into Tropical Depression Two-E. See the description above for more information. A tropical wave is analyzed along 130W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and S of the monsoon trough between 125W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 08.5N79W to 1006 mb low pres located near 13.5N97.5W, then resumes W of Adrian near 14N115W to 06N134W. The ITCZ continues from 06N135W to beyond 05.5N140W. Aside for the convection associated with Hurricane Adrian and Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E, scattered moderate to strong convection is within 210 nm offshore of the coastlines between 78.5W and 91W, from 07.5N to 11.5N between 101W and 109W, and within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 114W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Adrian remains a hurricane this evening, moving slowly W-NW and will maintain this track, moving across the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico through Sat. Large S to SW swell generate from Adrian will build across the offshore waters from Guerrero to Las Tres Marias this morning and then spread into the water of the southern Gulf of California and Baja Sur tonight through Fri. Behind Adrian, T.D. Two-E will move near or along the coast of SW Mexico today through Sat spreading tropical storm conditions and high seas across the near shore waters, accompanied by numerous strong thunderstorms and very heavy rain. Elsewhere to the NW, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area. In the Gulf California, moderate south to southwest winds prevail. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. The ridge centered to the NW will gradually weaken into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganizes to the NW. This will allow Adrian to eventually move more NW and for T.D. Two-E to eventually turn NW into open waters Sun through Mon. Large swell from both systems will dominate the waters south of Baja California Sur through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 88W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters E of 90W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region this morning, then mainly moderate winds will prevail. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri evening through Sat, followed by another pulse of SW swell early Sun through Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located NW of the area near 33N137W, dominates the waters N of 10N W of 115W. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ to about 24N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas generally of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted SW of Adrian from 10N to 14N between 107W and 115W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place today, then weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds between 106W and 115W will shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ Stripling