713 AXPZ20 KNHC 282146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Adrian strengthens a little while moving slowly westward. At 28/2100 UTC, Adrian is centered near 15.3N 108.4W moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. On the forecast track, a slow motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected during the next few days. Some additional strengthening is forecast into Thursday. Weakening is likely to begin Thursday night or Friday. Seas to 12 ft are expected within 180 nm E semicircle, 120 nm NW and 60 nm SW quadrants, with maximum seas estimated at 22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 14N between 105W and 110W. Swell associated with Adrian will move into the offshore waters of Las Tres Marias Islands and Baja California Sur Thu through Fri night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at wed-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S. Bret Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Invest Area (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico near 11.5N99W. Currently, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of center from 11N to 16N between 93W and 96W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and from 11N to 15N between 96W and 100W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both of these features. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 96W, from 05N northward into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1007 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 11.5N96W, moving WNW at 11 kt. See the Special Features section above for more information on this feature. A tropical wave is analyzed along 127W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from western Panama near 08.5N81W to 1007 mb low pres located near 11.5N96W, then resumes W of Adrian near 11N118W to 06N132W. The ITCZ continues from 06N132W to beyond 04N140W. Aside for the convection associated with Hurricane Adrian and low pressure near 11.5N96W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 15N between 113W and 118W, within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 120W and 128W, and within 90 nm S of the ITCZ between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Adrian rapidly intensifies into a hurricane. A low pressure with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation will move parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico Thu through Sun. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area. In the Gulf California, scatterometer data indicate mainly moderate southerly winds across the central and south parts of the Gulf while mainly light winds are noted over the northern Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters S of 20N are under the influence of Hurricane Adrian and a low pressure located S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with potential of tropical cyclone formation over the next 24-48 hours. Hurricane Adrian will move to 15.5N 109.6W Thu morning, 15.8N 111.0W Thu afternoon, 16.1N 112.2W Fri morning, 16.4N 113.4W Fri afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.8N 114.6W Sat morning, and 17.1N 115.5W Sat afternoon. Adrian will weaken to a remnant low near 17.6N 117.0W Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters N of Cabo San Lazaro trough at least Fri supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds. Pulsing fresh southerly winds are expected across the south and central Gulf of California during overnight hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh NE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 11N87W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters E of 90W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong Ne to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight, then mainly moderate winds will prevail. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri night through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Adrian rapidly intensifies into a hurricane. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more details. A ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located NW of the area near 32N138W, dominates mainly the waters N of 20N W of 115W. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ to about 15N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas generally of 4 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted SW of Adrian from 10N to 14N between 110W and 116W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place through Thu, then weaken slightly into the weekend as the anchoring high pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds will persist between 100W and 118W through Thu, and shift W-NW with Adrian, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri night through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ GR