000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 15.3N 106.0W at 27/2100 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas to 12 ft are expected within 30 nm N semicircle and 45 nm se quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 103W and 111W. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Adrian is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. South of Southern Mexico and Central America: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both of these features. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 91W, from 04N northward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pres is along the wave axis near 09N91W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 03N between 86W and 96W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 122W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 10 kt. No convection is related to this wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1009 mb low pres near 09N91W to 15N105W to 06N130W. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 18N and E of 116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the now T.S. Adrian, centered near 15.3N 106.0W. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to near Cabo San Lazaro, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the Baja California offshore waters north of 25N. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds prevail across north sections, with moderate to locally fresh southerly elsewhere. Seas across the and southern Gulf are up to 5 ft. Winds are generally light to moderate elsewhere, except for fresh NW winds in the immediate waters of central Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail across these remaining Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Adrian will move to 15.4N 107.4W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.4N 108.8W Wed afternoon, 15.5N 110.3W Thu morning, 15.6N 111.6W Thu afternoon, 15.8N 112.7W Fri morning, and 16.0N 113.7W Fri afternoon. Adrian will weaken to a tropical storm near 16.4N 115.1W on Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, the surface ridge across offshore waters will weaken modestly through mid-week as high pressure reorganizes farther NW of the area. Fresh to strong winds will continue N of Punta Eugenia through Wed. Pulsing fresh southerly winds expected across the south and central Gulf of California during overnight hours. Another low pressure may become more organized offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala on Wed and move west-northwestward just offshore of the Tehuantepec region Wed night and Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters S of 09N. Across the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central America through mid-week, except moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Low pressure may become more organized offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala on Wed. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri night through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on T.S. Adrian and the tropical waves moving across the area. High pressure well NW of the area extends a broad surface ridge southeastward to offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas from 10N to 25N and west of 120W. Gentle northerly winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 25N west of 130W. Moderate to fresh winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are noted just SW of T.S. Adrian S of 15N between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will drift southward and weaken through Wed, as the anchoring high pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds will develop between 100W and 118W through Thu, and shift W-NW through Thu, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri night through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ ERA