000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Off the Southern and Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 kt, generally away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. With this, there is a high chance for tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance for the next 7 days. South of Southern Mexico and Central America: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both of these features. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 90W, from 04N northward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pres is along the wave axis near 09N90W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 03N between 82W and 92W. A tropical wave is located along 104W, from 07N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A 1006 mb low pres is analyzed along the wave near 15N104W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 10N to 20N between 102W and 109W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 120W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 10 kt. No convection is related to this wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1009 mb low pres near 09N90W to 1006 mb low pres near 15N104W to 06N130W. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 20N and E of 110W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 114W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to near Cabo San Lazaro, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the Baja California offshore waters north of 25N. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds prevail across north sections, with moderate to locally fresh southerly elsewhere. Seas across the and southern Gulf are up to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds were depicted by overnight scatterometer data across the nearshore waters of Guerrero and Michoacan, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. A 1008 mb surface low center is located there near 15.5N103W. Very active convection has developed to the S and SW of the low overnight. Winds are generally light to moderate elsewhere, except for fresh NW winds in the immediate waters of central Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail across these remaining Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge across offshore waters will weaken modestly through mid-week as high pressure reorganizes farther NW of the area. Fresh to strong winds will continue N of Punta Eugenia through Wed. Pulsing fresh southerly winds expected across the south and central Gulf of California during overnight hours. See the special features section above for more information on the low pressure center off of southwestern Mexico. This area of low pressure is expected to become better organized offshore of southern Mexico through Wed. As this occurs, expect fresh to strong winds to shift westward across the nearshore waters of southwestern Mexico. Another low pressure may become more organized offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala on Wed and move west-northwestward just offshore of the Tehuantepec region Wed night and Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters S of 09N. Across the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central America through mid-week, except moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Low pressure may become more organized offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala on Wed. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator and into the waters of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri night through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the area. High pressure well NW of the area extends a broad surface ridge southeastward to offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas from 07N to 25N and west of 127W, and N of 15N between 120W and 127W. Gentle northerly winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 25N west of 130W. Light to gentle winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in SW swell are noted from S of 12N and W of 100W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will drift southward and weaken through Wed, as the anchoring high pressure center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 8 or 9 ft range. Strong SW monsoonal winds will develop between 100W and 118W through Thu, and shift W-NW through Thu, generating seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, new moderate-sized SW swell will cross the equator Fri night through Sat night and raise sea heights to 7 to 8 ft E of 130W and S of 10N. $$ ERA